Impact of behavioral heterogeneity on epidemic outcome and its mapping into effective network topologies
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866912859251802112 |
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| author | Mazza, Fabio Ricci, Gabriele Colaiori, Francesca Guarino, Stefano Meloni, Sandro Saracco, Fabio |
| author_facet | Mazza, Fabio Ricci, Gabriele Colaiori, Francesca Guarino, Stefano Meloni, Sandro Saracco, Fabio |
| contents | Human behavior plays a critical role in shaping epidemic trajectories. During health crises, people respond in diverse ways in terms of self-protection and adherence to recommended measures, largely reflecting differences in how individuals assess risk. This behavioral variability induces effective heterogeneity into key epidemic parameters, such as infectivity and susceptibility. We introduce a minimal extension of the susceptible-infected-removed~(SIR) model, denoted HeSIR, that captures these effects through a simple bimodal scheme, where individuals may have higher or lower transmission--related traits. We derive a closed-form expression for the epidemic threshold in terms of the model parameters, and the network's degree distribution and homophily, defined as the tendency of like--risk individuals to preferentially interact. We identify a resurgence regime just beyond the classical threshold, where the number of infected individuals may initially decline before surging into large-scale transmission. Through simulations on homogeneous and heterogeneous network topologies we corroborate the analytical results and highlight how variations in susceptibility and infectivity influence the epidemic dynamics. We further show that, under suitable assumptions, the HeSIR model maps onto a standard SIR process on an appropriately modified contact network, providing a unified interpretation in terms of structural connectivity. Our findings quantify the effect of heterogeneous behavioral responses, especially in the presence of homophily, and caution against underestimating epidemic potential in fragmented populations, which may undermine timely containment efforts. The results also extend to heterogeneity arising from biological or other non-behavioral sources. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_21743 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Impact of behavioral heterogeneity on epidemic outcome and its mapping into effective network topologies Mazza, Fabio Ricci, Gabriele Colaiori, Francesca Guarino, Stefano Meloni, Sandro Saracco, Fabio Physics and Society Populations and Evolution Human behavior plays a critical role in shaping epidemic trajectories. During health crises, people respond in diverse ways in terms of self-protection and adherence to recommended measures, largely reflecting differences in how individuals assess risk. This behavioral variability induces effective heterogeneity into key epidemic parameters, such as infectivity and susceptibility. We introduce a minimal extension of the susceptible-infected-removed~(SIR) model, denoted HeSIR, that captures these effects through a simple bimodal scheme, where individuals may have higher or lower transmission--related traits. We derive a closed-form expression for the epidemic threshold in terms of the model parameters, and the network's degree distribution and homophily, defined as the tendency of like--risk individuals to preferentially interact. We identify a resurgence regime just beyond the classical threshold, where the number of infected individuals may initially decline before surging into large-scale transmission. Through simulations on homogeneous and heterogeneous network topologies we corroborate the analytical results and highlight how variations in susceptibility and infectivity influence the epidemic dynamics. We further show that, under suitable assumptions, the HeSIR model maps onto a standard SIR process on an appropriately modified contact network, providing a unified interpretation in terms of structural connectivity. Our findings quantify the effect of heterogeneous behavioral responses, especially in the presence of homophily, and caution against underestimating epidemic potential in fragmented populations, which may undermine timely containment efforts. The results also extend to heterogeneity arising from biological or other non-behavioral sources. |
| title | Impact of behavioral heterogeneity on epidemic outcome and its mapping into effective network topologies |
| topic | Physics and Society Populations and Evolution |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.21743 |