MoHETS: Long-term Time Series Forecasting with Mixture-of-Heterogeneous-Experts
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arXiv
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2026
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| author | Ortigossa, Evandro S. Lutsker, Guy Segal, Eran |
| author_facet | Ortigossa, Evandro S. Lutsker, Guy Segal, Eran |
| contents | Real-world multivariate time series can exhibit intricate multi-scale structures, including global trends, local periodicities, and non-stationary regimes, which makes long-horizon forecasting challenging. Although sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) approaches improve scalability and specialization, they typically rely on homogeneous MLP experts that poorly capture the diverse temporal dynamics of time series data. We address these limitations with MoHETS, an encoder-only Transformer that integrates sparse Mixture-of-Heterogeneous-Experts (MoHE) layers. MoHE routes temporal patches to a small subset of expert networks, combining a shared depthwise-convolution expert for sequence-level continuity with routed Fourier-based experts for patch-level periodic structures. MoHETS further improves robustness to non-stationary dynamics by incorporating exogenous information via cross-attention over covariate patch embeddings. Finally, we replace parameter-heavy linear projection heads with a lightweight convolutional patch decoder, improving parameter efficiency, reducing training instability, and allowing a single model to generalize across arbitrary forecast horizons. We validate across seven multivariate benchmarks and multiple horizons, with MoHETS consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance, reducing the average MSE by $12\%$ compared to strong recent baselines, demonstrating effective heterogeneous specialization for long-term forecasting. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_21866 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | MoHETS: Long-term Time Series Forecasting with Mixture-of-Heterogeneous-Experts Ortigossa, Evandro S. Lutsker, Guy Segal, Eran Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Real-world multivariate time series can exhibit intricate multi-scale structures, including global trends, local periodicities, and non-stationary regimes, which makes long-horizon forecasting challenging. Although sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) approaches improve scalability and specialization, they typically rely on homogeneous MLP experts that poorly capture the diverse temporal dynamics of time series data. We address these limitations with MoHETS, an encoder-only Transformer that integrates sparse Mixture-of-Heterogeneous-Experts (MoHE) layers. MoHE routes temporal patches to a small subset of expert networks, combining a shared depthwise-convolution expert for sequence-level continuity with routed Fourier-based experts for patch-level periodic structures. MoHETS further improves robustness to non-stationary dynamics by incorporating exogenous information via cross-attention over covariate patch embeddings. Finally, we replace parameter-heavy linear projection heads with a lightweight convolutional patch decoder, improving parameter efficiency, reducing training instability, and allowing a single model to generalize across arbitrary forecast horizons. We validate across seven multivariate benchmarks and multiple horizons, with MoHETS consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance, reducing the average MSE by $12\%$ compared to strong recent baselines, demonstrating effective heterogeneous specialization for long-term forecasting. |
| title | MoHETS: Long-term Time Series Forecasting with Mixture-of-Heterogeneous-Experts |
| topic | Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.21866 |