Physically-motivated priors in the local distance ladder significantly reduce the Hubble tension
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866915963692122112 |
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| author | Högås, Marcus Mörtsell, Edvard |
| author_facet | Högås, Marcus Mörtsell, Edvard |
| contents | Determinations of the Hubble constant based on the local distance ladder remain in significant tension with early-Universe inferences from the cosmic microwave background. While this tension is often discussed in terms of new physics or unmodeled systematics, the role of the assumed priors on the model parameters has received comparatively little attention. Recently, Desmond et al. (2025) pointed out that the commonly adopted flat prior on distance moduli upweights smaller distances and systematically favors high inferred values of the Hubble constant. Motivated by this observation, we perform a comprehensive Bayesian recalibration of the distance ladder, applying physically motivated priors uniformly to all distances, including the Milky Way Cepheids, which are incorporated directly into the joint fit. Together with a conservative treatment of the Gaia EDR3 residual parallax offset, the Hubble constant shifts from $H_0 = 73.0 \pm 1.0 \, \mathrm{km/s/Mpc}$ to $H_0 = 70.6 \pm 1.0 \, \mathrm{km/s/Mpc}$, reducing the Hubble tension from $5 \, σ$ to $2 \, σ$. Our results show that the assumed priors -- often treated as innocuous defaults -- may play a central role in the Hubble tension. Because all local distance ladders rely on the calibration of distances, similar prior-driven effects are expected to arise across distance-ladder methods. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_22215 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Physically-motivated priors in the local distance ladder significantly reduce the Hubble tension Högås, Marcus Mörtsell, Edvard Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics Astrophysics of Galaxies Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability Determinations of the Hubble constant based on the local distance ladder remain in significant tension with early-Universe inferences from the cosmic microwave background. While this tension is often discussed in terms of new physics or unmodeled systematics, the role of the assumed priors on the model parameters has received comparatively little attention. Recently, Desmond et al. (2025) pointed out that the commonly adopted flat prior on distance moduli upweights smaller distances and systematically favors high inferred values of the Hubble constant. Motivated by this observation, we perform a comprehensive Bayesian recalibration of the distance ladder, applying physically motivated priors uniformly to all distances, including the Milky Way Cepheids, which are incorporated directly into the joint fit. Together with a conservative treatment of the Gaia EDR3 residual parallax offset, the Hubble constant shifts from $H_0 = 73.0 \pm 1.0 \, \mathrm{km/s/Mpc}$ to $H_0 = 70.6 \pm 1.0 \, \mathrm{km/s/Mpc}$, reducing the Hubble tension from $5 \, σ$ to $2 \, σ$. Our results show that the assumed priors -- often treated as innocuous defaults -- may play a central role in the Hubble tension. Because all local distance ladders rely on the calibration of distances, similar prior-driven effects are expected to arise across distance-ladder methods. |
| title | Physically-motivated priors in the local distance ladder significantly reduce the Hubble tension |
| topic | Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics Astrophysics of Galaxies Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.22215 |