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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.22918 |
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| _version_ | 1866911411095994368 |
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| author | Calvo, Rubén Roig, Adrián López, Roberto Corral Camacho-Mateu, José Cuesta, José A. Muñoz, Miguel A. |
| author_facet | Calvo, Rubén Roig, Adrián López, Roberto Corral Camacho-Mateu, José Cuesta, José A. Muñoz, Miguel A. |
| contents | Recent advances in metagenomics have revealed macroecological patterns or "laws" describing robust statistical regularities across microbial communities. Stochastic logistic models (SLMs), which treat species as independent -- akin to ideal gases in physics -- and incorporate environmental noise, reproduce many single-species patterns but cannot account for the pairwise covariation observed in microbiome data. Here we introduce an interacting stochastic logistic model (ISLM) that minimally extends the SLM by sampling an ensemble of random interaction networks chosen to preserve these single-species laws. Using dynamical mean-field theory, we map the model's phase diagram -- stable, chaotic, and unbounded-growth regimes -- where the transition from stable fixed-point to chaos is controlled by network sparsity and interaction heterogeneity via a May-like instability line. Going beyond mean-field theory to account for finite communities, we derive an estimator of an effective stability parameter that quantifies distance to the edge of instability and can be inferred from the width of the distribution of pairwise covariances in empirical species-abundance data. Applying this framework to synthetic data, environmental microbiomes, and human gut cohorts indicates that these communities tend to operate near the edge of instability. Moreover, gut communities from healthy individuals cluster closer to this edge and exhibit broader, more heterogeneous associations, whereas dysbiosis-associated states shift toward more stable regimes -- enabling discrimination across conditions such as Crohn's disease, inflammatory bowel syndrome, and colorectal cancer. Together, our results connect macroecological laws, interaction-network ensembles, and May's stability theory, suggesting that complex communities may benefit from operating near a dynamical phase transition. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_22918 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Microbiome association diversity reflects proximity to the edge of instability Calvo, Rubén Roig, Adrián López, Roberto Corral Camacho-Mateu, José Cuesta, José A. Muñoz, Miguel A. Populations and Evolution Quantitative Methods Recent advances in metagenomics have revealed macroecological patterns or "laws" describing robust statistical regularities across microbial communities. Stochastic logistic models (SLMs), which treat species as independent -- akin to ideal gases in physics -- and incorporate environmental noise, reproduce many single-species patterns but cannot account for the pairwise covariation observed in microbiome data. Here we introduce an interacting stochastic logistic model (ISLM) that minimally extends the SLM by sampling an ensemble of random interaction networks chosen to preserve these single-species laws. Using dynamical mean-field theory, we map the model's phase diagram -- stable, chaotic, and unbounded-growth regimes -- where the transition from stable fixed-point to chaos is controlled by network sparsity and interaction heterogeneity via a May-like instability line. Going beyond mean-field theory to account for finite communities, we derive an estimator of an effective stability parameter that quantifies distance to the edge of instability and can be inferred from the width of the distribution of pairwise covariances in empirical species-abundance data. Applying this framework to synthetic data, environmental microbiomes, and human gut cohorts indicates that these communities tend to operate near the edge of instability. Moreover, gut communities from healthy individuals cluster closer to this edge and exhibit broader, more heterogeneous associations, whereas dysbiosis-associated states shift toward more stable regimes -- enabling discrimination across conditions such as Crohn's disease, inflammatory bowel syndrome, and colorectal cancer. Together, our results connect macroecological laws, interaction-network ensembles, and May's stability theory, suggesting that complex communities may benefit from operating near a dynamical phase transition. |
| title | Microbiome association diversity reflects proximity to the edge of instability |
| topic | Populations and Evolution Quantitative Methods |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.22918 |