Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.23171 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866914295800922112 |
|---|---|
| author | Almudevar, Anthony |
| author_facet | Almudevar, Anthony |
| contents | This article includes a discussion of the ``lost submarine problem", following Morey \emph{et al} (2016). As the title of that paper suggests (\emph{The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals}), the example is intended to illustrate the futility of relying on the confidence interval as a formal inference statement. In the view of this author, the misgivings expressed in Morey \emph{et al} (2016) can be resolved using a decision theoretic approach. While it is true that a variety of statistical methods lead to a variety of confidence intervals, once we precisely define their purpose, a single optimal choice emerges. Furthermore, distinct purposes lead to distinct optimal choices. Therefore, that a variety of procedures exist is an advantage rather than a liability. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2601_23171 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Revisiting the Lost Submarine Problem: A Decision Theoretic Approach Almudevar, Anthony Other Statistics 62C05 This article includes a discussion of the ``lost submarine problem", following Morey \emph{et al} (2016). As the title of that paper suggests (\emph{The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals}), the example is intended to illustrate the futility of relying on the confidence interval as a formal inference statement. In the view of this author, the misgivings expressed in Morey \emph{et al} (2016) can be resolved using a decision theoretic approach. While it is true that a variety of statistical methods lead to a variety of confidence intervals, once we precisely define their purpose, a single optimal choice emerges. Furthermore, distinct purposes lead to distinct optimal choices. Therefore, that a variety of procedures exist is an advantage rather than a liability. |
| title | Revisiting the Lost Submarine Problem: A Decision Theoretic Approach |
| topic | Other Statistics 62C05 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.23171 |