T-LLM: Teaching Large Language Models to Forecast Time Series via Temporal Distillation
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866917241695502336 |
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| author | Guo, Suhan Wang, Bingxu Zhang, Shaodan Shen, Furao |
| author_facet | Guo, Suhan Wang, Bingxu Zhang, Shaodan Shen, Furao |
| contents | Time series forecasting plays a critical role in decision-making across many real-world applications. Unlike data in vision and language domains, time series data is inherently tied to the evolution of underlying processes and can only accumulate as real-world time progresses, limiting the effectiveness of scale-driven pretraining alone. This time-bound constraint poses a challenge for enabling large language models (LLMs) to acquire forecasting capability, as existing approaches primarily rely on representation-level alignment or inference-time temporal modules rather than explicitly teaching forecasting behavior to the LLM. We propose T-LLM, a temporal distillation framework that equips general-purpose LLMs with time series forecasting capability by transferring predictive behavior from a lightweight temporal teacher during training. The teacher combines trend modeling and frequency-domain analysis to provide structured temporal supervision, and is removed entirely at inference, leaving the LLM as the sole forecasting model. Experiments on benchmark datasets and infectious disease forecasting tasks demonstrate that T-LLM consistently outperforms existing LLM-based forecasting methods under full-shot, few-shot, and zero-shot settings, while enabling a simple and efficient deployment pipeline. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_01937 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | T-LLM: Teaching Large Language Models to Forecast Time Series via Temporal Distillation Guo, Suhan Wang, Bingxu Zhang, Shaodan Shen, Furao Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Time series forecasting plays a critical role in decision-making across many real-world applications. Unlike data in vision and language domains, time series data is inherently tied to the evolution of underlying processes and can only accumulate as real-world time progresses, limiting the effectiveness of scale-driven pretraining alone. This time-bound constraint poses a challenge for enabling large language models (LLMs) to acquire forecasting capability, as existing approaches primarily rely on representation-level alignment or inference-time temporal modules rather than explicitly teaching forecasting behavior to the LLM. We propose T-LLM, a temporal distillation framework that equips general-purpose LLMs with time series forecasting capability by transferring predictive behavior from a lightweight temporal teacher during training. The teacher combines trend modeling and frequency-domain analysis to provide structured temporal supervision, and is removed entirely at inference, leaving the LLM as the sole forecasting model. Experiments on benchmark datasets and infectious disease forecasting tasks demonstrate that T-LLM consistently outperforms existing LLM-based forecasting methods under full-shot, few-shot, and zero-shot settings, while enabling a simple and efficient deployment pipeline. |
| title | T-LLM: Teaching Large Language Models to Forecast Time Series via Temporal Distillation |
| topic | Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.01937 |