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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.02863 |
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| _version_ | 1866912871273725952 |
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| author | Chen, Jinkun Cheng, Fengxiang Han, Sijia Keselj, Vlado |
| author_facet | Chen, Jinkun Cheng, Fengxiang Han, Sijia Keselj, Vlado |
| contents | Reasoning failures in large language models (LLMs) are typically measured only at the end of a generation, yet many failures manifest as a process-level breakdown: the model "loses the thread" mid-reasoning. We study whether such breakdowns are detectable from inference-time observables available in standard APIs (token log probabilities), without any training or fine-tuning. We define a simple instability signal that combines consecutive-step distributional shift (JSD) and uncertainty (entropy), summarize each trace by its peak instability strength, and show that this signal reliably predicts failure. Across GSM8K and HotpotQA, instability strength predicts wrong answers with above-chance AUC and yields monotonic bucket-level accuracy decline at scale across model sizes. Crucially, we show that instability is not uniformly harmful: early instability can reflect subsequent stabilization and a correct final answer (\emph{corrective instability}), whereas late instability is more often followed by failure (\emph{destructive instability}), even at comparable peak magnitudes, indicating that recoverability depends not only on how strongly the distribution changes but also on when such changes occur relative to the remaining decoding horizon. The method is model-agnostic, training-free, and reproducible, and is presented as a diagnostic lens rather than a corrective or control mechanism. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_02863 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | "I May Not Have Articulated Myself Clearly": Diagnosing Dynamic Instability in LLM Reasoning at Inference Time Chen, Jinkun Cheng, Fengxiang Han, Sijia Keselj, Vlado Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Reasoning failures in large language models (LLMs) are typically measured only at the end of a generation, yet many failures manifest as a process-level breakdown: the model "loses the thread" mid-reasoning. We study whether such breakdowns are detectable from inference-time observables available in standard APIs (token log probabilities), without any training or fine-tuning. We define a simple instability signal that combines consecutive-step distributional shift (JSD) and uncertainty (entropy), summarize each trace by its peak instability strength, and show that this signal reliably predicts failure. Across GSM8K and HotpotQA, instability strength predicts wrong answers with above-chance AUC and yields monotonic bucket-level accuracy decline at scale across model sizes. Crucially, we show that instability is not uniformly harmful: early instability can reflect subsequent stabilization and a correct final answer (\emph{corrective instability}), whereas late instability is more often followed by failure (\emph{destructive instability}), even at comparable peak magnitudes, indicating that recoverability depends not only on how strongly the distribution changes but also on when such changes occur relative to the remaining decoding horizon. The method is model-agnostic, training-free, and reproducible, and is presented as a diagnostic lens rather than a corrective or control mechanism. |
| title | "I May Not Have Articulated Myself Clearly": Diagnosing Dynamic Instability in LLM Reasoning at Inference Time |
| topic | Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.02863 |