Learning virulence-transmission relationships using causal inference
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| author | Surasinghe, Sudam Ogbunugafor, C. Brandon |
| author_facet | Surasinghe, Sudam Ogbunugafor, C. Brandon |
| contents | The relationship between traits that influence pathogen virulence and transmission is part of the central canon of the evolution and ecology of infectious disease. However, identifying directional and mechanistic relationships among traits remains a key challenge in various subfields of biology, as models often assume static, fixed links between characteristics. Here, we introduce learning evolutionary trait relationships (LETR), a data-driven framework that applies Granger-causality principles to determine which traits drive others and how these relationships change over time. LETR integrates causal discovery with generative mapping and transfer-operator analysis to link short-term predictability with long-term trait distributions. Using a synthetic myxomatosis virus-host data set, we show that LETR reliably recovers known directional influences, such as virulence driving transmission. Applying the framework to global pandemic (SARS-CoV-2) data, we find that past virulence improves future transmission prediction, while the reverse effect is weak. Invariant-density estimates reveal a long-term trend toward low virulence and transmission, with bimodality in virulence suggesting ecological influences or host heterogeneity. In summary, this study provides a blueprint for learning the relationship between how harmful a pathogen is and how well it spreads, which is highly idiosyncratic and context-dependent. This finding undermines simplistic models and encourages the development of new theory for the constraints underlying pathogen evolution. Further, by uniting causal inference with dynamical modeling, the LETR framework offers a general approach for uncovering mechanistic trait linkages in complex biological systems of various kinds. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_05196 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Learning virulence-transmission relationships using causal inference Surasinghe, Sudam Ogbunugafor, C. Brandon Populations and Evolution Quantitative Methods The relationship between traits that influence pathogen virulence and transmission is part of the central canon of the evolution and ecology of infectious disease. However, identifying directional and mechanistic relationships among traits remains a key challenge in various subfields of biology, as models often assume static, fixed links between characteristics. Here, we introduce learning evolutionary trait relationships (LETR), a data-driven framework that applies Granger-causality principles to determine which traits drive others and how these relationships change over time. LETR integrates causal discovery with generative mapping and transfer-operator analysis to link short-term predictability with long-term trait distributions. Using a synthetic myxomatosis virus-host data set, we show that LETR reliably recovers known directional influences, such as virulence driving transmission. Applying the framework to global pandemic (SARS-CoV-2) data, we find that past virulence improves future transmission prediction, while the reverse effect is weak. Invariant-density estimates reveal a long-term trend toward low virulence and transmission, with bimodality in virulence suggesting ecological influences or host heterogeneity. In summary, this study provides a blueprint for learning the relationship between how harmful a pathogen is and how well it spreads, which is highly idiosyncratic and context-dependent. This finding undermines simplistic models and encourages the development of new theory for the constraints underlying pathogen evolution. Further, by uniting causal inference with dynamical modeling, the LETR framework offers a general approach for uncovering mechanistic trait linkages in complex biological systems of various kinds. |
| title | Learning virulence-transmission relationships using causal inference |
| topic | Populations and Evolution Quantitative Methods |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.05196 |