On the Difficulties with Late-Time Solutions for the Hubble Tension
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866908816798384128 |
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| author | Bansal, Prakhar Huterer, Dragan |
| author_facet | Bansal, Prakhar Huterer, Dragan |
| contents | We explore the notion that cosmological models that modify the late-time expansion history cannot simultaneously fit the SH0ES collaboration's measurements of the Hubble constant, DESI baryon acoustic oscillations data, and Type Ia supernova distances. Adopting a few simple phenomenological models, we quantitatively demonstrate that a satisfactory fit with a model with late-time expansion history can only be achieved if one of the following is true: 1) there is a sharp step in the absolute magnitude of Type Ia supernovae at very low redshift, $z\sim 0.01$, or 2) the distance duality relation, $d_L(z)=(1+z)^2d_A(z)$, is broken. Both solutions are trivial in that they effectively decouple the calibrated SNIa measurements from other data, and this qualitatively agrees with previous work built on studying specific dark-energy models. We also identify a less effective class of late-time solutions with a transition at $z\simeq 0.15$ that lead to a more modest improvement in fit to the data than models with a very low-z transition. Our conclusions are largely unchanged when we include surface brightness fluctuation distance measurements, with their current systematic uncertainties, to our analysis. We finally illustrate our findings by studying a physical model which, when equipped with the ability to smoothly change the absolute magnitude of Type Ia supernovae, partially resolves the Hubble tension. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_06293 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | On the Difficulties with Late-Time Solutions for the Hubble Tension Bansal, Prakhar Huterer, Dragan Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics We explore the notion that cosmological models that modify the late-time expansion history cannot simultaneously fit the SH0ES collaboration's measurements of the Hubble constant, DESI baryon acoustic oscillations data, and Type Ia supernova distances. Adopting a few simple phenomenological models, we quantitatively demonstrate that a satisfactory fit with a model with late-time expansion history can only be achieved if one of the following is true: 1) there is a sharp step in the absolute magnitude of Type Ia supernovae at very low redshift, $z\sim 0.01$, or 2) the distance duality relation, $d_L(z)=(1+z)^2d_A(z)$, is broken. Both solutions are trivial in that they effectively decouple the calibrated SNIa measurements from other data, and this qualitatively agrees with previous work built on studying specific dark-energy models. We also identify a less effective class of late-time solutions with a transition at $z\simeq 0.15$ that lead to a more modest improvement in fit to the data than models with a very low-z transition. Our conclusions are largely unchanged when we include surface brightness fluctuation distance measurements, with their current systematic uncertainties, to our analysis. We finally illustrate our findings by studying a physical model which, when equipped with the ability to smoothly change the absolute magnitude of Type Ia supernovae, partially resolves the Hubble tension. |
| title | On the Difficulties with Late-Time Solutions for the Hubble Tension |
| topic | Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.06293 |