Algorithmic Monitoring: Measuring Market Stress with Machine Learning
Fuente:
arXiv
Salvato in:
| Autore principale: | |
|---|---|
| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2026
|
| Soggetti: | |
| Accesso online: | |
| Tags: |
Aggiungi Tag
Nessun Tag, puoi essere il primo ad aggiungerne!!
|
| _version_ | 1866914311725645824 |
|---|---|
| author | Schmitt, Marc |
| author_facet | Schmitt, Marc |
| contents | I construct a Market Stress Probability Index (MSPI) that estimates the probability of high stress in the U.S. equity market one month ahead using information from the cross-section of individual stocks. Using CRSP daily data, each month is summarized by a set of interpretable cross-sectional fragility signals and mapped into a forward-looking stress probability via an L1-regularized logistic regression in a real-time expanding-window design. Out of sample, MSPI tracks major stress episodes and improves discrimination and accuracy relative to a parsimonious benchmark based on lagged market return and realized volatility, delivering calibrated stress probabilities on an economically meaningful scale. Further, I illustrate how MSPI can be used as a probability-based measurement object in financial econometrics. The resulting index provides a transparent and easily updated measure of near-term equity-market stress risk. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_07066 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Algorithmic Monitoring: Measuring Market Stress with Machine Learning Schmitt, Marc Risk Management Statistical Finance I construct a Market Stress Probability Index (MSPI) that estimates the probability of high stress in the U.S. equity market one month ahead using information from the cross-section of individual stocks. Using CRSP daily data, each month is summarized by a set of interpretable cross-sectional fragility signals and mapped into a forward-looking stress probability via an L1-regularized logistic regression in a real-time expanding-window design. Out of sample, MSPI tracks major stress episodes and improves discrimination and accuracy relative to a parsimonious benchmark based on lagged market return and realized volatility, delivering calibrated stress probabilities on an economically meaningful scale. Further, I illustrate how MSPI can be used as a probability-based measurement object in financial econometrics. The resulting index provides a transparent and easily updated measure of near-term equity-market stress risk. |
| title | Algorithmic Monitoring: Measuring Market Stress with Machine Learning |
| topic | Risk Management Statistical Finance |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.07066 |