Compact Conformal Subgraphs

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Gollapudi, Sreenivas, Kollias, Kostas, Munagala, Kamesh, Vijayaraghavan, Aravindan
Format: Preprint
Published: 2026
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author Gollapudi, Sreenivas
Kollias, Kostas
Munagala, Kamesh
Vijayaraghavan, Aravindan
author_facet Gollapudi, Sreenivas
Kollias, Kostas
Munagala, Kamesh
Vijayaraghavan, Aravindan
contents Conformal prediction provides rigorous, distribution-free uncertainty guarantees, but often yields prohibitively large prediction sets in structured domains such as routing, planning, or sequential recommendation. We introduce "graph-based conformal compression", a framework for constructing compact subgraphs that preserve statistical validity while reducing structural complexity. We formulate compression as selecting a smallest subgraph capturing a prescribed fraction of the probability mass, and reduce to a weighted version of densest $k$-subgraphs in hypergraphs, in the regime where the subgraph has a large fraction of edges. We design efficient approximation algorithms that achieve constant factor coverage and size trade-offs. Crucially, we prove that our relaxation satisfies a monotonicity property, derived from a connection to parametric minimum cuts, which guarantees the nestedness required for valid conformal guarantees. Our results on the one hand bridge efficient conformal prediction with combinatorial graph compression via monotonicity, to provide rigorous guarantees on both statistical validity, and compression or size. On the other hand, they also highlight an algorithmic regime, distinct from classical densest-$k$-subgraph hardness settings, where the problem can be approximated efficiently. We finally validate our algorithmic approach via simulations for trip planning and navigation, and compare to natural baselines.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_07530
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Compact Conformal Subgraphs
Gollapudi, Sreenivas
Kollias, Kostas
Munagala, Kamesh
Vijayaraghavan, Aravindan
Machine Learning
Data Structures and Algorithms
Conformal prediction provides rigorous, distribution-free uncertainty guarantees, but often yields prohibitively large prediction sets in structured domains such as routing, planning, or sequential recommendation. We introduce "graph-based conformal compression", a framework for constructing compact subgraphs that preserve statistical validity while reducing structural complexity. We formulate compression as selecting a smallest subgraph capturing a prescribed fraction of the probability mass, and reduce to a weighted version of densest $k$-subgraphs in hypergraphs, in the regime where the subgraph has a large fraction of edges. We design efficient approximation algorithms that achieve constant factor coverage and size trade-offs. Crucially, we prove that our relaxation satisfies a monotonicity property, derived from a connection to parametric minimum cuts, which guarantees the nestedness required for valid conformal guarantees. Our results on the one hand bridge efficient conformal prediction with combinatorial graph compression via monotonicity, to provide rigorous guarantees on both statistical validity, and compression or size. On the other hand, they also highlight an algorithmic regime, distinct from classical densest-$k$-subgraph hardness settings, where the problem can be approximated efficiently. We finally validate our algorithmic approach via simulations for trip planning and navigation, and compare to natural baselines.
title Compact Conformal Subgraphs
topic Machine Learning
Data Structures and Algorithms
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.07530