GAAVI: Global Asymptotic Anytime Valid Inference for the Conditional Mean Function
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866911432134623232 |
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| author | Cho, Brian M Dwivedi, Raaz Kallus, Nathan |
| author_facet | Cho, Brian M Dwivedi, Raaz Kallus, Nathan |
| contents | Inference on the conditional mean function (CMF) is central to tasks from adaptive experimentation to optimal treatment assignment and algorithmic fairness auditing. In this work, we provide a novel asymptotic anytime-valid test for a CMF global null (e.g., that all conditional means are zero) and contrasts between CMFs, enabling experimenters to make high confidence decisions at any time during the experiment beyond a minimum sample size. We provide mild conditions under which our tests achieve (i) asymptotic type-I error guarantees, (i) power one, and, unlike past tests, (iii) optimal sample complexity relative to a Gaussian location testing. By inverting our tests, we show how to construct function-valued asymptotic confidence sequences for the CMF and contrasts thereof. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show our method is well-powered across various distributions while preserving the nominal error rate under continuous monitoring. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_08096 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | GAAVI: Global Asymptotic Anytime Valid Inference for the Conditional Mean Function Cho, Brian M Dwivedi, Raaz Kallus, Nathan Methodology Machine Learning Inference on the conditional mean function (CMF) is central to tasks from adaptive experimentation to optimal treatment assignment and algorithmic fairness auditing. In this work, we provide a novel asymptotic anytime-valid test for a CMF global null (e.g., that all conditional means are zero) and contrasts between CMFs, enabling experimenters to make high confidence decisions at any time during the experiment beyond a minimum sample size. We provide mild conditions under which our tests achieve (i) asymptotic type-I error guarantees, (i) power one, and, unlike past tests, (iii) optimal sample complexity relative to a Gaussian location testing. By inverting our tests, we show how to construct function-valued asymptotic confidence sequences for the CMF and contrasts thereof. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show our method is well-powered across various distributions while preserving the nominal error rate under continuous monitoring. |
| title | GAAVI: Global Asymptotic Anytime Valid Inference for the Conditional Mean Function |
| topic | Methodology Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.08096 |