Two Robust Interstellar Meteor Candidates in the Post-2018 CNEOS Fireball Database
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arXiv
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| Formato: | Preprint |
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2026
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| author | Cloete, Richard Loeb, Abraham |
| author_facet | Cloete, Richard Loeb, Abraham |
| contents | We report the identification of two previously unrecognized interstellar meteor candidates in the NASA CNEOS fireball database. Using the empirically calibrated low-discrepancy uncertainty model of Peña-Asensio et al.\ (2025) for post-2018 CNEOS velocity accuracy (1$σ$: speed 0.55~km~s$^{-1}$, right ascension 1.35$^\circ$, declination 0.84$^\circ$), we transform CNEOS velocity vectors to heliocentric orbits and assess interstellar candidacy via $10^{6}$-draw Monte Carlo simulations. Two post-2018 events have heliocentric speeds robustly exceeding the Solar System escape speed. CNEOS-22 (2022-07-28; 6.0$^\circ$S, 86.9$^\circ$W; eastern tropical Pacific) has $v_{\rm hel}=46.98$~km~s$^{-1}$, exceeding escape by $Δ= 5.18 \pm 0.60$~km~s$^{-1}$ ($z_Δ=8.7σ$), with interstellar speed $v_{\infty,\odot}=21.5$~km~s$^{-1}$. CNEOS-25 (2025-02-12; 73.4$^\circ$N, 49.3$^\circ$E; Barents Sea) has $v_{\rm hel}=45.63$~km~s$^{-1}$, exceeding escape by $Δ= 3.22 \pm 0.58$~km~s$^{-1}$ ($z_Δ=5.5σ$), with $v_{\infty,\odot}=16.9$~km~s$^{-1}$. For both events, none of $10^{6}$ realizations yield a gravitationally bound orbit ($p_{\rm bound} < 3\times 10^{-6}$). The adopted error model would need to underestimate the true uncertainties by factors of 5--9 for either candidate to be marginally bound. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_08956 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Two Robust Interstellar Meteor Candidates in the Post-2018 CNEOS Fireball Database Cloete, Richard Loeb, Abraham Earth and Planetary Astrophysics We report the identification of two previously unrecognized interstellar meteor candidates in the NASA CNEOS fireball database. Using the empirically calibrated low-discrepancy uncertainty model of Peña-Asensio et al.\ (2025) for post-2018 CNEOS velocity accuracy (1$σ$: speed 0.55~km~s$^{-1}$, right ascension 1.35$^\circ$, declination 0.84$^\circ$), we transform CNEOS velocity vectors to heliocentric orbits and assess interstellar candidacy via $10^{6}$-draw Monte Carlo simulations. Two post-2018 events have heliocentric speeds robustly exceeding the Solar System escape speed. CNEOS-22 (2022-07-28; 6.0$^\circ$S, 86.9$^\circ$W; eastern tropical Pacific) has $v_{\rm hel}=46.98$~km~s$^{-1}$, exceeding escape by $Δ= 5.18 \pm 0.60$~km~s$^{-1}$ ($z_Δ=8.7σ$), with interstellar speed $v_{\infty,\odot}=21.5$~km~s$^{-1}$. CNEOS-25 (2025-02-12; 73.4$^\circ$N, 49.3$^\circ$E; Barents Sea) has $v_{\rm hel}=45.63$~km~s$^{-1}$, exceeding escape by $Δ= 3.22 \pm 0.58$~km~s$^{-1}$ ($z_Δ=5.5σ$), with $v_{\infty,\odot}=16.9$~km~s$^{-1}$. For both events, none of $10^{6}$ realizations yield a gravitationally bound orbit ($p_{\rm bound} < 3\times 10^{-6}$). The adopted error model would need to underestimate the true uncertainties by factors of 5--9 for either candidate to be marginally bound. |
| title | Two Robust Interstellar Meteor Candidates in the Post-2018 CNEOS Fireball Database |
| topic | Earth and Planetary Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.08956 |