Empirical Evaluation of QAOA with Zero Noise Extrapolation on NISQ Hardware for Carbon Credit Portfolio Optimization in the Brazilian Cerrado

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Autore principale: Ribeiro, Hugo José
Natura: Preprint
Pubblicazione: 2026
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author Ribeiro, Hugo José
author_facet Ribeiro, Hugo José
contents Optimizing carbon credit portfolios is a critical challenge for climate mitigation, particularly in high-biodiversity biomes such as the Brazilian Cerrado. This study explores the practical application of the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) combined with Zero Noise Extrapolation (ZNE) to address a multi-objective territorial planning problem. We model an 88-variable portfolio optimization involving carbon sequestration, biodiversity connectivity, and social impact metrics, executed on intermediate-scale IBM Quantum hardware (ibm_torino and ibm_fez). The results of seven independent hardware runs demonstrate that the QAOA+ZNE workflow consistently outperforms a classical greedy baseline. The quantum method achieves a mean portfolio score of 58.47 +/- 6.98, corresponding to a 31.6% improvement over the classical heuristic (44.42), with high statistical significance (p = 0.0009) and a large effect size (Cohen's d = 2.01), where ZNE yields extrapolated expectation values of the portfolio objective rather than a discrete portfolio solution without noise. A validation run conducted after a 13-day interval confirms the temporal stability of the methodology against hardware calibration drifts. These findings establish empirical quantum utility in an environmental science context, showing that current NISQ-era devices, when coupled with rigorous error mitigation, can identify complex territorial synergies that myopic classical approaches overlook. The proposed workflow provides a scalable methodological template for high-precision environmental conservation policies.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_09047
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Empirical Evaluation of QAOA with Zero Noise Extrapolation on NISQ Hardware for Carbon Credit Portfolio Optimization in the Brazilian Cerrado
Ribeiro, Hugo José
Quantum Physics
81P68, 90C27
F.2.2; I.2.8; J.2
Optimizing carbon credit portfolios is a critical challenge for climate mitigation, particularly in high-biodiversity biomes such as the Brazilian Cerrado. This study explores the practical application of the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) combined with Zero Noise Extrapolation (ZNE) to address a multi-objective territorial planning problem. We model an 88-variable portfolio optimization involving carbon sequestration, biodiversity connectivity, and social impact metrics, executed on intermediate-scale IBM Quantum hardware (ibm_torino and ibm_fez). The results of seven independent hardware runs demonstrate that the QAOA+ZNE workflow consistently outperforms a classical greedy baseline. The quantum method achieves a mean portfolio score of 58.47 +/- 6.98, corresponding to a 31.6% improvement over the classical heuristic (44.42), with high statistical significance (p = 0.0009) and a large effect size (Cohen's d = 2.01), where ZNE yields extrapolated expectation values of the portfolio objective rather than a discrete portfolio solution without noise. A validation run conducted after a 13-day interval confirms the temporal stability of the methodology against hardware calibration drifts. These findings establish empirical quantum utility in an environmental science context, showing that current NISQ-era devices, when coupled with rigorous error mitigation, can identify complex territorial synergies that myopic classical approaches overlook. The proposed workflow provides a scalable methodological template for high-precision environmental conservation policies.
title Empirical Evaluation of QAOA with Zero Noise Extrapolation on NISQ Hardware for Carbon Credit Portfolio Optimization in the Brazilian Cerrado
topic Quantum Physics
81P68, 90C27
F.2.2; I.2.8; J.2
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.09047