Epistemic Throughput: Fundamental Limits of Attention-Constrained Inference
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866910020865622016 |
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| author | You, Lei |
| author_facet | You, Lei |
| contents | Recent generative and tool-using AI systems can surface a large volume of candidates at low marginal cost, yet only a small fraction can be checked carefully. This creates a decoder-side bottleneck: downstream decision-makers must form reliable posteriors from many public records under scarce attention. We formalize this regime via Attention-Constrained Inference (ACI), in which a cheap screening stage processes $K$ records and an expensive verification stage can follow up on at most $B$ of them. Under Bayes log-loss, we study the maximum achievable reduction in posterior uncertainty per window, which we call \emph{epistemic throughput}. Our main result is a ``JaKoB'' scaling law showing that epistemic throughput has a baseline term that grows linearly with verification and prevalence, and an additional \emph{information-leverage} term that scales as $\sqrt{JKB}$, where $J$ summarizes screening quality. Thus, expanding cheap screening can nonlinearly amplify scarce verification, even when informative records are rare. We further show that this scaling is tight in a weak-screening limit, and that in the sparse-verification regime ($B \ll K$), substantial leverage requires heavy-tailed score distributions; for light-tailed scores the amplification is only logarithmic. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_09127 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Epistemic Throughput: Fundamental Limits of Attention-Constrained Inference You, Lei Machine Learning Information Theory Recent generative and tool-using AI systems can surface a large volume of candidates at low marginal cost, yet only a small fraction can be checked carefully. This creates a decoder-side bottleneck: downstream decision-makers must form reliable posteriors from many public records under scarce attention. We formalize this regime via Attention-Constrained Inference (ACI), in which a cheap screening stage processes $K$ records and an expensive verification stage can follow up on at most $B$ of them. Under Bayes log-loss, we study the maximum achievable reduction in posterior uncertainty per window, which we call \emph{epistemic throughput}. Our main result is a ``JaKoB'' scaling law showing that epistemic throughput has a baseline term that grows linearly with verification and prevalence, and an additional \emph{information-leverage} term that scales as $\sqrt{JKB}$, where $J$ summarizes screening quality. Thus, expanding cheap screening can nonlinearly amplify scarce verification, even when informative records are rare. We further show that this scaling is tight in a weak-screening limit, and that in the sparse-verification regime ($B \ll K$), substantial leverage requires heavy-tailed score distributions; for light-tailed scores the amplification is only logarithmic. |
| title | Epistemic Throughput: Fundamental Limits of Attention-Constrained Inference |
| topic | Machine Learning Information Theory |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.09127 |