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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Lorek, Paweł, Nowak, Rafał, Topolnicki, Rafał, Trzciński, Tomasz, Zięba, Maciej, Krystecka, Aleksandra
Format: Preprint
Published: 2026
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.10706
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Table of Contents:
  • Estimating the expectation of a real-valued function of a random variable from sample data is a critical aspect of statistical analysis, with far-reaching implications in various applications. Current methodologies typically assume (semi-)parametric distributions such as Gaussian or mixed Gaussian, leading to significant estimation uncertainty if these assumptions do not hold. We propose a flow-based model, integrated with stratified sampling, that leverages a parametrized neural network to offer greater flexibility in modeling unknown data distributions, thereby mitigating this limitation. Our model shows a marked reduction in estimation uncertainty across multiple datasets, including high-dimensional (30 and 128) ones, outperforming crude Monte Carlo estimators and Gaussian mixture models. Reproducible code is available at https://github.com/rnoxy/flowstrat.