Time delays and stationarity in quasar light curves
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866918397767319552 |
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| author | Kroupa, Namu Yallup, David Handley, Will |
| author_facet | Kroupa, Namu Yallup, David Handley, Will |
| contents | We present a fully Bayesian framework for time delay inference and stationarity tests in quasar light curves using marginalised Gaussian processes. The model separates a deterministic, non-stationary drift (piecewise linear mean) from stationary stochastic variability (Matérn and Spectral Mixture kernels), and jointly models multiple images with per-image microlensing. Bayesian evidence and parameter posteriors are obtained via nested sampling and marginalised over model choices. Applied to the quasars WFI J2033 - 4723, B 1608 + 656, and HE 0435 - 1223, we find strong evidence for non-stationarity in B 1608 + 656 and HE 0435 - 1223, while WFI J2033 - 4723 is consistent with stationarity. The stochastic component favours an Markovian exponential kernel for B 1608 + 656 and a non-Markovian Matérn-$\frac32$ kernel for WFI J2033 - 4723 and HE 0435 - 1223. Multi-length-scale Spectral Mixture kernels are disfavoured. Time delays are shown to be robust to model assumptions and consistent with prior work within the error. We further identify and mitigate a likelihood pathology which biases toward large delays, providing a practical nested sampling convergence protocol. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_11264 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Time delays and stationarity in quasar light curves Kroupa, Namu Yallup, David Handley, Will Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics We present a fully Bayesian framework for time delay inference and stationarity tests in quasar light curves using marginalised Gaussian processes. The model separates a deterministic, non-stationary drift (piecewise linear mean) from stationary stochastic variability (Matérn and Spectral Mixture kernels), and jointly models multiple images with per-image microlensing. Bayesian evidence and parameter posteriors are obtained via nested sampling and marginalised over model choices. Applied to the quasars WFI J2033 - 4723, B 1608 + 656, and HE 0435 - 1223, we find strong evidence for non-stationarity in B 1608 + 656 and HE 0435 - 1223, while WFI J2033 - 4723 is consistent with stationarity. The stochastic component favours an Markovian exponential kernel for B 1608 + 656 and a non-Markovian Matérn-$\frac32$ kernel for WFI J2033 - 4723 and HE 0435 - 1223. Multi-length-scale Spectral Mixture kernels are disfavoured. Time delays are shown to be robust to model assumptions and consistent with prior work within the error. We further identify and mitigate a likelihood pathology which biases toward large delays, providing a practical nested sampling convergence protocol. |
| title | Time delays and stationarity in quasar light curves |
| topic | Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.11264 |