Cusp Bifurcation in Conceptual Thermohaline Circulation Model
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866913003543199744 |
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| author | Noory, Jasmine |
| author_facet | Noory, Jasmine |
| contents | The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is often analyzed using low-order box models to understand tipping points. Historically, these studies focus on freshwater flux as the primary bifurcation parameter, treating the temperature gradient as a fixed restoring target. However, the erosion of the equator-to-pole temperature contrast due to polar amplification suggests that thermal forcing should be treated as a dynamic control parameter. In this study, we use Cessi's reduced box model to map the global bifurcation structure of the thermohaline circulation. We relax the assumption of a fixed thermal background and analyze the system's behavior under joint thermal and haline forcing. We prove the existence of a cusp bifurcation, identifying the specific geometry of pitchfork and saddle-node bifurcations that bound the stable regime. This geometric characterization reveals that thermal erosion acts as a distinct mechanism for destabilization, capable of driving the system across critical thresholds even in the absence of anomalous freshwater forcing. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_11542 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Cusp Bifurcation in Conceptual Thermohaline Circulation Model Noory, Jasmine Dynamical Systems The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is often analyzed using low-order box models to understand tipping points. Historically, these studies focus on freshwater flux as the primary bifurcation parameter, treating the temperature gradient as a fixed restoring target. However, the erosion of the equator-to-pole temperature contrast due to polar amplification suggests that thermal forcing should be treated as a dynamic control parameter. In this study, we use Cessi's reduced box model to map the global bifurcation structure of the thermohaline circulation. We relax the assumption of a fixed thermal background and analyze the system's behavior under joint thermal and haline forcing. We prove the existence of a cusp bifurcation, identifying the specific geometry of pitchfork and saddle-node bifurcations that bound the stable regime. This geometric characterization reveals that thermal erosion acts as a distinct mechanism for destabilization, capable of driving the system across critical thresholds even in the absence of anomalous freshwater forcing. |
| title | Cusp Bifurcation in Conceptual Thermohaline Circulation Model |
| topic | Dynamical Systems |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.11542 |