Competing Risk Analysis in Cardiovascular Outcome Trials: A Simulation Comparison of Cox and Fine-Gray Models
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866908839333330944 |
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| author | Wang, Tuo Du, Yu |
| author_facet | Wang, Tuo Du, Yu |
| contents | Cardiovascular outcome trials commonly face competing risks when non-CV death prevents observation of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). While Cox proportional hazards models treat competing events as independent censoring, Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard models explicitly handle competing risks, targeting different estimands. This simulation study using bivariate copula models systematically varies competing event rates (0.5%-5% annually), treatment effects on competing events (50% reduction to 50% increase), and correlation structures to compare these approaches. At competing event rates typical of CV outcome trials (~1% annually), Cox and Fine-Gray produce nearly identical hazard ratio estimates regardless of correlation strength or treatment effect direction. Substantial divergence occurs only with high competing rates and directionally discordant treatment effects, though neither estimator provides unbiased estimates of true marginal hazard ratios under these conditions. In typical CV trial settings with low competing event rates, Cox models remain appropriate for primary analysis due to superior interpretability. Pre-specified Cox models should not be abandoned for competing risk methods. Importantly, Fine-Gray models do not constitute proper sensitivity analyses to Cox models per ICH E9(R1), as they target different estimands rather than testing assumptions. As supplementary analysis, cumulative incidence using Aalen-Johansen estimator can provide transparency about competing risk impact. Under high competing-risk scenarios, alternative approaches such as inverse probability of censoring weighting, multiple imputation, or inclusion of all-cause mortality in primary endpoints warrant consideration. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_16031 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Competing Risk Analysis in Cardiovascular Outcome Trials: A Simulation Comparison of Cox and Fine-Gray Models Wang, Tuo Du, Yu Methodology Applications Cardiovascular outcome trials commonly face competing risks when non-CV death prevents observation of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). While Cox proportional hazards models treat competing events as independent censoring, Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard models explicitly handle competing risks, targeting different estimands. This simulation study using bivariate copula models systematically varies competing event rates (0.5%-5% annually), treatment effects on competing events (50% reduction to 50% increase), and correlation structures to compare these approaches. At competing event rates typical of CV outcome trials (~1% annually), Cox and Fine-Gray produce nearly identical hazard ratio estimates regardless of correlation strength or treatment effect direction. Substantial divergence occurs only with high competing rates and directionally discordant treatment effects, though neither estimator provides unbiased estimates of true marginal hazard ratios under these conditions. In typical CV trial settings with low competing event rates, Cox models remain appropriate for primary analysis due to superior interpretability. Pre-specified Cox models should not be abandoned for competing risk methods. Importantly, Fine-Gray models do not constitute proper sensitivity analyses to Cox models per ICH E9(R1), as they target different estimands rather than testing assumptions. As supplementary analysis, cumulative incidence using Aalen-Johansen estimator can provide transparency about competing risk impact. Under high competing-risk scenarios, alternative approaches such as inverse probability of censoring weighting, multiple imputation, or inclusion of all-cause mortality in primary endpoints warrant consideration. |
| title | Competing Risk Analysis in Cardiovascular Outcome Trials: A Simulation Comparison of Cox and Fine-Gray Models |
| topic | Methodology Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.16031 |