Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Chen, Huabin, Wang, Xinao, Chu, Huiping, Xu, Keqin, Zhai, Chenhao, Wang, Chenyi, Meng, Kai, Jiang, Yuning
Format: Preprint
Published: 2026
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.17058
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1866911456886259712
author Chen, Huabin
Wang, Xinao
Chu, Huiping
Xu, Keqin
Zhai, Chenhao
Wang, Chenyi
Meng, Kai
Jiang, Yuning
author_facet Chen, Huabin
Wang, Xinao
Chu, Huiping
Xu, Keqin
Zhai, Chenhao
Wang, Chenyi
Meng, Kai
Jiang, Yuning
contents Accurately modeling long-term value (LTV) at the ranking stage of short-video recommendation remains challenging. While delayed feedback and extended engagement have been explored, fine-grained attribution and robust position normalization at billion-scale are still underdeveloped. We propose a practical ranking-stage LTV framework addressing three challenges: position bias, attribution ambiguity, and temporal limitations. (1) Position bias: We introduce a Position-aware Debias Quantile (PDQ) module that normalizes engagement via quantile-based distributions, enabling position-robust LTV estimation without architectural changes. (2) Attribution ambiguity: We propose a multi-dimensional attribution module that learns continuous attribution strengths across contextual, behavioral, and content signals, replacing static rules to capture nuanced inter-video influence. A customized hybrid loss with explicit noise filtering improves causal clarity. (3) Temporal limitations: We present a cross-temporal author modeling module that builds censoring-aware, day-level LTV targets to capture creator-driven re-engagement over longer horizons; the design is extensible to other dimensions (e.g., topics, styles). Offline studies and online A/B tests show significant improvements in LTV metrics and stable trade-offs with short-term objectives. Implemented as task augmentation within an existing ranking model, the framework supports efficient training and serving, and has been deployed at billion-scale in Taobao's production system, delivering sustained engagement gains while remaining compatible with industrial constraints.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_17058
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle A Long-term Value Prediction Framework In Video Ranking
Chen, Huabin
Wang, Xinao
Chu, Huiping
Xu, Keqin
Zhai, Chenhao
Wang, Chenyi
Meng, Kai
Jiang, Yuning
Information Retrieval
Accurately modeling long-term value (LTV) at the ranking stage of short-video recommendation remains challenging. While delayed feedback and extended engagement have been explored, fine-grained attribution and robust position normalization at billion-scale are still underdeveloped. We propose a practical ranking-stage LTV framework addressing three challenges: position bias, attribution ambiguity, and temporal limitations. (1) Position bias: We introduce a Position-aware Debias Quantile (PDQ) module that normalizes engagement via quantile-based distributions, enabling position-robust LTV estimation without architectural changes. (2) Attribution ambiguity: We propose a multi-dimensional attribution module that learns continuous attribution strengths across contextual, behavioral, and content signals, replacing static rules to capture nuanced inter-video influence. A customized hybrid loss with explicit noise filtering improves causal clarity. (3) Temporal limitations: We present a cross-temporal author modeling module that builds censoring-aware, day-level LTV targets to capture creator-driven re-engagement over longer horizons; the design is extensible to other dimensions (e.g., topics, styles). Offline studies and online A/B tests show significant improvements in LTV metrics and stable trade-offs with short-term objectives. Implemented as task augmentation within an existing ranking model, the framework supports efficient training and serving, and has been deployed at billion-scale in Taobao's production system, delivering sustained engagement gains while remaining compatible with industrial constraints.
title A Long-term Value Prediction Framework In Video Ranking
topic Information Retrieval
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.17058