Bayesian Online Model Selection
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866908843030609920 |
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| author | Afshar, Aida Zhang, Yuke Pacchiano, Aldo |
| author_facet | Afshar, Aida Zhang, Yuke Pacchiano, Aldo |
| contents | Online model selection in Bayesian bandits raises a fundamental exploration challenge: When an environment instance is sampled from a prior distribution, how can we design an adaptive strategy that explores multiple bandit learners and competes with the best one in hindsight? We address this problem by introducing a new Bayesian algorithm for online model selection in stochastic bandits. We prove an oracle-style guarantee of $O\left( d^* M \sqrt{T} + \sqrt{(MT)} \right)$ on the Bayesian regret, where $M$ is the number of base learners, $d^*$ is the regret coefficient of the optimal base learner, and $T$ is the time horizon. We also validate our method empirically across a range of stochastic bandit settings, demonstrating performance that is competitive with the best base learner. Additionally, we study the effect of sharing data among base learners and its role in mitigating prior mis-specification. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_17958 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Bayesian Online Model Selection Afshar, Aida Zhang, Yuke Pacchiano, Aldo Machine Learning Online model selection in Bayesian bandits raises a fundamental exploration challenge: When an environment instance is sampled from a prior distribution, how can we design an adaptive strategy that explores multiple bandit learners and competes with the best one in hindsight? We address this problem by introducing a new Bayesian algorithm for online model selection in stochastic bandits. We prove an oracle-style guarantee of $O\left( d^* M \sqrt{T} + \sqrt{(MT)} \right)$ on the Bayesian regret, where $M$ is the number of base learners, $d^*$ is the regret coefficient of the optimal base learner, and $T$ is the time horizon. We also validate our method empirically across a range of stochastic bandit settings, demonstrating performance that is competitive with the best base learner. Additionally, we study the effect of sharing data among base learners and its role in mitigating prior mis-specification. |
| title | Bayesian Online Model Selection |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.17958 |