Orbital Escalation: Modeling Satellite Ransomware Attacks Using Game Theory
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866914341837602816 |
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| author | López-Morales, Efrén |
| author_facet | López-Morales, Efrén |
| contents | Ransomware has yet to reach orbit, but the conditions for such an attack already exist. This paper presents the first game-theoretic framework for modeling ransomware against satellites: the orbital escalation game. In this model, the attacker escalates ransom demands across orbital passes, while the defender chooses their best strategy, e.g., attempt a restore procedure. Using dynamic programming, we solve the defender's optimal strategy and the attacker's expected payoff under real orbital constraints. Additionally, we provide a GPS III satellite case study that demonstrates how our orbital escalation game can be applied in the context of a fictional but feasible ransomware attack to derive the best strategies at every step. In conclusion, this foundational model offers satellite owners, policy makers and researchers, a formal framework to better prepare their responses when a spacecraft is held for ransom. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_18624 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Orbital Escalation: Modeling Satellite Ransomware Attacks Using Game Theory López-Morales, Efrén Cryptography and Security Computer Science and Game Theory Ransomware has yet to reach orbit, but the conditions for such an attack already exist. This paper presents the first game-theoretic framework for modeling ransomware against satellites: the orbital escalation game. In this model, the attacker escalates ransom demands across orbital passes, while the defender chooses their best strategy, e.g., attempt a restore procedure. Using dynamic programming, we solve the defender's optimal strategy and the attacker's expected payoff under real orbital constraints. Additionally, we provide a GPS III satellite case study that demonstrates how our orbital escalation game can be applied in the context of a fictional but feasible ransomware attack to derive the best strategies at every step. In conclusion, this foundational model offers satellite owners, policy makers and researchers, a formal framework to better prepare their responses when a spacecraft is held for ransom. |
| title | Orbital Escalation: Modeling Satellite Ransomware Attacks Using Game Theory |
| topic | Cryptography and Security Computer Science and Game Theory |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.18624 |