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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Wang, Yuhao, Wang, Tengyao
Format: Preprint
Published: 2026
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.19284
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Table of Contents:
  • We propose a localized conformal model selection framework that integrates local adaptivity with post-selection validity for distribution-free prediction. By performing model selection symmetrically across calibration points using upper and lower surrogate intervals, we construct a data-dependent safe index set that contains the oracle model and preserves exchangeability. The resulting ensemble procedure retains exact finite-sample marginal coverage while adapting to spatial heterogeneity and model complexity. Simulations demonstrate substantial reductions in interval length compared to the best fixed model, especially in heterogeneous and low-noise settings.