Overconfident Errors Need Stronger Correction: Asymmetric Confidence Penalties for Reinforcement Learning
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866918355652313088 |
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| author | Xu, Yuanda Sang, Hejian Zhou, Zhengze He, Ran Wang, Zhipeng |
| author_facet | Xu, Yuanda Sang, Hejian Zhou, Zhengze He, Ran Wang, Zhipeng |
| contents | Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has become the leading paradigm for enhancing reasoning in Large Language Models (LLMs). However, standard RLVR algorithms suffer from a well-documented pathology: while they improve Pass@1 accuracy through sharpened sampling, they simultaneously narrow the model's reasoning boundary and reduce generation diversity. We identify a root cause that existing methods overlook: the uniform penalization of errors. Current approaches -- whether data-filtering methods that select prompts by difficulty, or advantage normalization schemes -- treat all incorrect rollouts within a group identically. We show that this uniformity allows overconfident errors (incorrect reasoning paths that the RL process has spuriously reinforced) to persist and monopolize probability mass, ultimately suppressing valid exploratory trajectories. To address this, we propose the Asymmetric Confidence-aware Error Penalty (ACE). ACE introduces a per-rollout confidence shift metric, c_i = log(pi_theta(y_i|x) / pi_ref(y_i|x)), to dynamically modulate negative advantages. Theoretically, we demonstrate that ACE's gradient can be decomposed into the gradient of a selective regularizer restricted to overconfident errors, plus a well-characterized residual that partially moderates the regularizer's strength. We conduct extensive experiments fine-tuning Qwen2.5-Math-7B, Qwen3-8B-Base, and Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct on the DAPO-Math-17K dataset using GRPO and DAPO within the VERL framework. Evaluated on MATH-500 and AIME 2025, ACE composes seamlessly with existing methods and consistently improves the full Pass@k spectrum across all three model families and benchmarks. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_21420 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Overconfident Errors Need Stronger Correction: Asymmetric Confidence Penalties for Reinforcement Learning Xu, Yuanda Sang, Hejian Zhou, Zhengze He, Ran Wang, Zhipeng Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has become the leading paradigm for enhancing reasoning in Large Language Models (LLMs). However, standard RLVR algorithms suffer from a well-documented pathology: while they improve Pass@1 accuracy through sharpened sampling, they simultaneously narrow the model's reasoning boundary and reduce generation diversity. We identify a root cause that existing methods overlook: the uniform penalization of errors. Current approaches -- whether data-filtering methods that select prompts by difficulty, or advantage normalization schemes -- treat all incorrect rollouts within a group identically. We show that this uniformity allows overconfident errors (incorrect reasoning paths that the RL process has spuriously reinforced) to persist and monopolize probability mass, ultimately suppressing valid exploratory trajectories. To address this, we propose the Asymmetric Confidence-aware Error Penalty (ACE). ACE introduces a per-rollout confidence shift metric, c_i = log(pi_theta(y_i|x) / pi_ref(y_i|x)), to dynamically modulate negative advantages. Theoretically, we demonstrate that ACE's gradient can be decomposed into the gradient of a selective regularizer restricted to overconfident errors, plus a well-characterized residual that partially moderates the regularizer's strength. We conduct extensive experiments fine-tuning Qwen2.5-Math-7B, Qwen3-8B-Base, and Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct on the DAPO-Math-17K dataset using GRPO and DAPO within the VERL framework. Evaluated on MATH-500 and AIME 2025, ACE composes seamlessly with existing methods and consistently improves the full Pass@k spectrum across all three model families and benchmarks. |
| title | Overconfident Errors Need Stronger Correction: Asymmetric Confidence Penalties for Reinforcement Learning |
| topic | Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.21420 |