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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Isaacs, Riley L, Hu, X. Joan, Peng, K. Ken, Swartz, Tim
Format: Preprint
Published: 2026
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.22684
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author Isaacs, Riley L
Hu, X. Joan
Peng, K. Ken
Swartz, Tim
author_facet Isaacs, Riley L
Hu, X. Joan
Peng, K. Ken
Swartz, Tim
contents Corner kicks are an important event in soccer because they are often the result of strong attacking play and can be of keen interest to sports fans and bettors. Peng, Hu, and Swartz (2024, Computational Statistics) formulate the mixture feature of corner kick times caused by previous corner kicks, frame the commonly available corner kick data as right-censored event times, and explore patterns of corner kicks. This paper extends their modeling to accommodate the potential correlations between corner kicks by the same teams within the same games. We con- sider a frailty model for event times and apply the Monte Carlo Expec- tation Maximization (MCEM) algorithm to obtain the maximum like- lihood estimates for the model parameters. We compare the proposed model with the model in Peng, Hu, and Swartz (2024) using likelihood ratio tests. The 2019 Chinese Super League (CSL) data are employed throughout the paper for motivation and illustration.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_22684
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Learning about Corner Kicks in Soccer by Analysis of Event Times Using a Frailty Model
Isaacs, Riley L
Hu, X. Joan
Peng, K. Ken
Swartz, Tim
Methodology
Corner kicks are an important event in soccer because they are often the result of strong attacking play and can be of keen interest to sports fans and bettors. Peng, Hu, and Swartz (2024, Computational Statistics) formulate the mixture feature of corner kick times caused by previous corner kicks, frame the commonly available corner kick data as right-censored event times, and explore patterns of corner kicks. This paper extends their modeling to accommodate the potential correlations between corner kicks by the same teams within the same games. We con- sider a frailty model for event times and apply the Monte Carlo Expec- tation Maximization (MCEM) algorithm to obtain the maximum like- lihood estimates for the model parameters. We compare the proposed model with the model in Peng, Hu, and Swartz (2024) using likelihood ratio tests. The 2019 Chinese Super League (CSL) data are employed throughout the paper for motivation and illustration.
title Learning about Corner Kicks in Soccer by Analysis of Event Times Using a Frailty Model
topic Methodology
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.22684