Investigating potential benefits of future sub-L1 missions with STEREO-A
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , , , , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866914353574313984 |
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| author | Weiler, Eva Davies, Emma E. Möstl, Christian Lugaz, Noé Veronig, Astrid Bailey, Rachel Reiss, Martin |
| author_facet | Weiler, Eva Davies, Emma E. Möstl, Christian Lugaz, Noé Veronig, Astrid Bailey, Rachel Reiss, Martin |
| contents | We present the first statistical study of geomagnetic storm forecasting using in situ data from the STEREO-A spacecraft as a sub-L1 monitor. Between November 2022 and June 2024, STEREO-A crossed the Sun-Earth line, covering longitudinal and radial separations of +/-15° from the Sun-Earth line and 0.01-0.06 au from Earth. This passage provides a unique opportunity to assess future sub-L1 mission concepts by ESA, such as HENON and SHIELD. We identify 32 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by both STEREO-A and L1 spacecraft. Eight of these 32 CME events are first detected at L1, indicating that radial spacecraft separations of up to ~0.05 au do not always yield lead time advantages. Furthermore, we find greater (smaller) gains in lead time when STEREO-A is east (west) of the Sun-Earth line. We develop a baseline methodology for the use of future sub-L1 in situ data to enable time-shifting and real-time modeling of the geomagnetic SYM-H index. This is run continuously over the entire time period, therefore modeling the geomagnetic response of all solar wind structures. Our methodology is empirically motivated and should be considered a first approach in addressing the use of sub-L1 data. Following this methodology, 26 of 47 observed geomagnetic storms are correctly identified from STEREO-A data. Intense events (82%, SYM-H<-100 nT) are well detected, most of which are also associated with an identified CME event. Most SYM-H minima are predicted later (72%) and stronger (58%) than those observed due to biases introduced by our methodology. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_22982 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Investigating potential benefits of future sub-L1 missions with STEREO-A Weiler, Eva Davies, Emma E. Möstl, Christian Lugaz, Noé Veronig, Astrid Bailey, Rachel Reiss, Martin Space Physics Earth and Planetary Astrophysics Solar and Stellar Astrophysics We present the first statistical study of geomagnetic storm forecasting using in situ data from the STEREO-A spacecraft as a sub-L1 monitor. Between November 2022 and June 2024, STEREO-A crossed the Sun-Earth line, covering longitudinal and radial separations of +/-15° from the Sun-Earth line and 0.01-0.06 au from Earth. This passage provides a unique opportunity to assess future sub-L1 mission concepts by ESA, such as HENON and SHIELD. We identify 32 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by both STEREO-A and L1 spacecraft. Eight of these 32 CME events are first detected at L1, indicating that radial spacecraft separations of up to ~0.05 au do not always yield lead time advantages. Furthermore, we find greater (smaller) gains in lead time when STEREO-A is east (west) of the Sun-Earth line. We develop a baseline methodology for the use of future sub-L1 in situ data to enable time-shifting and real-time modeling of the geomagnetic SYM-H index. This is run continuously over the entire time period, therefore modeling the geomagnetic response of all solar wind structures. Our methodology is empirically motivated and should be considered a first approach in addressing the use of sub-L1 data. Following this methodology, 26 of 47 observed geomagnetic storms are correctly identified from STEREO-A data. Intense events (82%, SYM-H<-100 nT) are well detected, most of which are also associated with an identified CME event. Most SYM-H minima are predicted later (72%) and stronger (58%) than those observed due to biases introduced by our methodology. |
| title | Investigating potential benefits of future sub-L1 missions with STEREO-A |
| topic | Space Physics Earth and Planetary Astrophysics Solar and Stellar Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.22982 |