TESS Planet Occurrence Rates Reveal the Disappearance of the Radius Valley Around Mid-to-Late M Dwarfs
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866912994345091072 |
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| author | Gillis, Erik Cloutier, Ryan Pass, Emily |
| author_facet | Gillis, Erik Cloutier, Ryan Pass, Emily |
| contents | We present the deepest systematic search for planets around mid-to-late M dwarfs to date. We have surveyed 8134 mid-to-late M dwarfs observed by TESS with a custom built pipeline and recover 77 vetted transiting planet candidates. We characterize the sensitivity of our survey via injection-recovery and measure the occurrence rate of planets as a function of orbital period, instellation, and planet radius. We measure a cumulative occurrence rate of $1.10\pm0.16$ planets per star with radii $>1\, R_\oplus$ orbiting within 30 days. This value is consistent with the cumulative occurrence rate around early M dwarfs, making M dwarfs collectively the most prolific hosts of small close-in planets. Unlike the bimodal Radius Valley exhibited by close-in planet population around FGK and early M dwarfs, we recover a unimodal planet radius distribution peaking at $1.25\pm0.05 \, R_\oplus$. We additionally find $0.954\pm0.147$ super-Earths and $0.148\pm0.045$ sub-Neptunes per star, with super-Earths outnumbering sub-Neptunes 5.5:1, firmly demonstrating that the Radius Valley disappears around the lowest mass stars. The dearth of sub-Neptunes around mid-to-late M dwarfs is consistent with predictions from water-rich pebble accretion models that predict a fading Radius Valley with decreasing stellar mass. Our results support the emerging idea that the sub-Neptune population around M dwarfs is composed of water-rich worlds. We find no hot Jupiters in our survey and set an upper limit of 0.012 hot Jupiters per mid-to-late M dwarf within 10 days. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_23364 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | TESS Planet Occurrence Rates Reveal the Disappearance of the Radius Valley Around Mid-to-Late M Dwarfs Gillis, Erik Cloutier, Ryan Pass, Emily Earth and Planetary Astrophysics We present the deepest systematic search for planets around mid-to-late M dwarfs to date. We have surveyed 8134 mid-to-late M dwarfs observed by TESS with a custom built pipeline and recover 77 vetted transiting planet candidates. We characterize the sensitivity of our survey via injection-recovery and measure the occurrence rate of planets as a function of orbital period, instellation, and planet radius. We measure a cumulative occurrence rate of $1.10\pm0.16$ planets per star with radii $>1\, R_\oplus$ orbiting within 30 days. This value is consistent with the cumulative occurrence rate around early M dwarfs, making M dwarfs collectively the most prolific hosts of small close-in planets. Unlike the bimodal Radius Valley exhibited by close-in planet population around FGK and early M dwarfs, we recover a unimodal planet radius distribution peaking at $1.25\pm0.05 \, R_\oplus$. We additionally find $0.954\pm0.147$ super-Earths and $0.148\pm0.045$ sub-Neptunes per star, with super-Earths outnumbering sub-Neptunes 5.5:1, firmly demonstrating that the Radius Valley disappears around the lowest mass stars. The dearth of sub-Neptunes around mid-to-late M dwarfs is consistent with predictions from water-rich pebble accretion models that predict a fading Radius Valley with decreasing stellar mass. Our results support the emerging idea that the sub-Neptune population around M dwarfs is composed of water-rich worlds. We find no hot Jupiters in our survey and set an upper limit of 0.012 hot Jupiters per mid-to-late M dwarf within 10 days. |
| title | TESS Planet Occurrence Rates Reveal the Disappearance of the Radius Valley Around Mid-to-Late M Dwarfs |
| topic | Earth and Planetary Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.23364 |