A New Window into the Baryon Cycle at Cosmic Noon with Line Intensity Mapping: Forecasts for auto- and cross-correlations in [CII]-158$μ$m, HI 21 cm, CO$_{J+1\rightarrow J}$, and H$α$ galaxies
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| author | Agrawal, Shubh Aguirre, James E. Bracks, Justin S. Keenan, Ryan P. Bradford, Charles M. Brendal, Brockton S. Dow, Peter Filippini, Jeffrey P. Fu, Jianyang Garcia, Karolina Janssen, Reinier M. J. Johnson, Bradley R. Kang, Wooseok Karoumpis, Christos Keating, Garrett K. Lidz, Adam Liu, Lun-Jun Lowe, Ian Manduca, Alexander Mangu, Aashrita Marrone, Daniel P. Mayer, Evan C. O'Donnell, Sydnee Saeid, Talia Van Cuyck, Mathilde Vieira, Joaquin Zebrowski, Jessica A. |
| author_facet | Agrawal, Shubh Aguirre, James E. Bracks, Justin S. Keenan, Ryan P. Bradford, Charles M. Brendal, Brockton S. Dow, Peter Filippini, Jeffrey P. Fu, Jianyang Garcia, Karolina Janssen, Reinier M. J. Johnson, Bradley R. Kang, Wooseok Karoumpis, Christos Keating, Garrett K. Lidz, Adam Liu, Lun-Jun Lowe, Ian Manduca, Alexander Mangu, Aashrita Marrone, Daniel P. Mayer, Evan C. O'Donnell, Sydnee Saeid, Talia Van Cuyck, Mathilde Vieira, Joaquin Zebrowski, Jessica A. |
| contents | Across the peak of cosmic star formation at $z\sim1-2$, inflow, processing, and feedback drive rapid changes in the spatial distribution and chemical composition of baryons in galaxies and surrounding reservoirs; this baryon cycle can be tomographically mapped by line intensity mapping (LIM) of atomic hydrogen, ionized carbon, and carbon monoxide.
We present a simulation-based forecasting framework for detecting auto- and cross-power spectra between spectroscopic surveys of four such tracers at $z\sim0.5-1.7$ mapping the same deep field - TIM, EoRSpec/FYST, MeerKAT, & Euclid. We forward-model 3-D distributions for these tracers from magnetohydrodynamic simulations, directly capturing the two-halo, one-halo, and shot statistics without relying on analytical decompositions. We further detail a signal-to-noise formalism, tailored to LIM surveys with highly anisotropic geometries and Fourier-space coverage.
We demonstrate that galaxy cross-correlations will be the dominant discovery channel for current-generation surveys. These instruments will detect the auto-spectra for CO and HI 21 cm and the CO $\times$ 21 cm cross-spectrum at modest S/N $\sim 1-10$, while placing upper limits on the [CII]-158$μ$m signals. [CII], CO, and HI LIM will be $\sim3-30\times$ ($0.5-1.5$ dex) more sensitive to cross-correlation with the Euclid survey, however, than their respective auto-correlations, constraining all three models of line emission at high significance (S/N $\sim 10-40$) within this decade.
Finally, we formulate a staged instrumental trajectory with planned or reasonable improvements, including the as-proposed SKA-Mid. We forecast advancing the per-$k$-mode sensitivities of each auto-, galaxy-line, and line-line spectrum by several orders of magnitude, enabling new percent- and sub-percent level constraints on cosmology and the redshift evolution of star formation and the baryon cycle. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2602_24120 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | A New Window into the Baryon Cycle at Cosmic Noon with Line Intensity Mapping: Forecasts for auto- and cross-correlations in [CII]-158$μ$m, HI 21 cm, CO$_{J+1\rightarrow J}$, and H$α$ galaxies Agrawal, Shubh Aguirre, James E. Bracks, Justin S. Keenan, Ryan P. Bradford, Charles M. Brendal, Brockton S. Dow, Peter Filippini, Jeffrey P. Fu, Jianyang Garcia, Karolina Janssen, Reinier M. J. Johnson, Bradley R. Kang, Wooseok Karoumpis, Christos Keating, Garrett K. Lidz, Adam Liu, Lun-Jun Lowe, Ian Manduca, Alexander Mangu, Aashrita Marrone, Daniel P. Mayer, Evan C. O'Donnell, Sydnee Saeid, Talia Van Cuyck, Mathilde Vieira, Joaquin Zebrowski, Jessica A. Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics Astrophysics of Galaxies Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics Across the peak of cosmic star formation at $z\sim1-2$, inflow, processing, and feedback drive rapid changes in the spatial distribution and chemical composition of baryons in galaxies and surrounding reservoirs; this baryon cycle can be tomographically mapped by line intensity mapping (LIM) of atomic hydrogen, ionized carbon, and carbon monoxide. We present a simulation-based forecasting framework for detecting auto- and cross-power spectra between spectroscopic surveys of four such tracers at $z\sim0.5-1.7$ mapping the same deep field - TIM, EoRSpec/FYST, MeerKAT, & Euclid. We forward-model 3-D distributions for these tracers from magnetohydrodynamic simulations, directly capturing the two-halo, one-halo, and shot statistics without relying on analytical decompositions. We further detail a signal-to-noise formalism, tailored to LIM surveys with highly anisotropic geometries and Fourier-space coverage. We demonstrate that galaxy cross-correlations will be the dominant discovery channel for current-generation surveys. These instruments will detect the auto-spectra for CO and HI 21 cm and the CO $\times$ 21 cm cross-spectrum at modest S/N $\sim 1-10$, while placing upper limits on the [CII]-158$μ$m signals. [CII], CO, and HI LIM will be $\sim3-30\times$ ($0.5-1.5$ dex) more sensitive to cross-correlation with the Euclid survey, however, than their respective auto-correlations, constraining all three models of line emission at high significance (S/N $\sim 10-40$) within this decade. Finally, we formulate a staged instrumental trajectory with planned or reasonable improvements, including the as-proposed SKA-Mid. We forecast advancing the per-$k$-mode sensitivities of each auto-, galaxy-line, and line-line spectrum by several orders of magnitude, enabling new percent- and sub-percent level constraints on cosmology and the redshift evolution of star formation and the baryon cycle. |
| title | A New Window into the Baryon Cycle at Cosmic Noon with Line Intensity Mapping: Forecasts for auto- and cross-correlations in [CII]-158$μ$m, HI 21 cm, CO$_{J+1\rightarrow J}$, and H$α$ galaxies |
| topic | Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics Astrophysics of Galaxies Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.24120 |