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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.00449 |
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| _version_ | 1866911474634457088 |
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| author | Deen, Sam Lam, Derek |
| author_facet | Deen, Sam Lam, Derek |
| contents | 2024 YR4 is a 40-100 meter-diameter asteroid and former Torino Scale 3 object which currently has a roughly 4% chance of impacting the Moon on 2032 December 22, an event which recent studies suggest could pose a hazard on Earth due to impact ejecta. We present a search for, and identification of, potential precovery observations of the virtual lunar impactor in Intermediate Palomar Transient Facility (IPTF) survey data, as well as other publicly accessible surveys, dating from 2016. These candidate detections, not accounting for any currently-undetected Yarkovsky forces, predict a perilune of 22001 +/- 49 km and a perigee of 277534 +/- 46 km (relative to the center of each respective body) representing an improvement of > 300 times in the approach distance uncertainty above the existing orbit solution and, if confirmed, decisively ruling out a lunar impact in 2032. Using a matched filter tuned to 2024 YR4's predicted appearance in each image, we find the detection to be significant at Pnull = 5x10-9. The resultant possible orbit solution should be easy to confirm during 2024 YR4's 2028 approach to Earth, potentially greatly reducing the effort required by the planetary defense community at large to characterize 2024 YR4 before its potential lunar impact. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_00449 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | 2024 YR4: Identification of Possible Precoveries in 2016 IPTF Data Deen, Sam Lam, Derek Earth and Planetary Astrophysics 2024 YR4 is a 40-100 meter-diameter asteroid and former Torino Scale 3 object which currently has a roughly 4% chance of impacting the Moon on 2032 December 22, an event which recent studies suggest could pose a hazard on Earth due to impact ejecta. We present a search for, and identification of, potential precovery observations of the virtual lunar impactor in Intermediate Palomar Transient Facility (IPTF) survey data, as well as other publicly accessible surveys, dating from 2016. These candidate detections, not accounting for any currently-undetected Yarkovsky forces, predict a perilune of 22001 +/- 49 km and a perigee of 277534 +/- 46 km (relative to the center of each respective body) representing an improvement of > 300 times in the approach distance uncertainty above the existing orbit solution and, if confirmed, decisively ruling out a lunar impact in 2032. Using a matched filter tuned to 2024 YR4's predicted appearance in each image, we find the detection to be significant at Pnull = 5x10-9. The resultant possible orbit solution should be easy to confirm during 2024 YR4's 2028 approach to Earth, potentially greatly reducing the effort required by the planetary defense community at large to characterize 2024 YR4 before its potential lunar impact. |
| title | 2024 YR4: Identification of Possible Precoveries in 2016 IPTF Data |
| topic | Earth and Planetary Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.00449 |