The Anatomy of a Blockchain Prediction Market: Polymarket in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866915985561223168 |
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| author | Tsang, Kwok Ping Yang, Zichao |
| author_facet | Tsang, Kwok Ping Yang, Zichao |
| contents | Using on-chain Polygon data, we analyze Polymarket's 2024 U.S. Presidential Election market and develop a transaction-level accounting framework with two components: a volume decomposition that separates exchange-equivalent turnover from share minting and burning, and trader-level disagreement measures. Naive aggregation reports $958M of October Trump-market volume, compared with $391M under our decomposition. Market quality improved as arbitrage-deviation half-lives fell from hours to under a minute and Kyle's λ dropped from 0.53 to 0.01. During October's large-account episode, capital flowed into both sides simultaneously, consistent with heterogeneous-beliefs trading rather than one-sided manipulation. The framework generalizes to other tokenized prediction markets. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_03136 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | The Anatomy of a Blockchain Prediction Market: Polymarket in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Tsang, Kwok Ping Yang, Zichao General Economics Economics Using on-chain Polygon data, we analyze Polymarket's 2024 U.S. Presidential Election market and develop a transaction-level accounting framework with two components: a volume decomposition that separates exchange-equivalent turnover from share minting and burning, and trader-level disagreement measures. Naive aggregation reports $958M of October Trump-market volume, compared with $391M under our decomposition. Market quality improved as arbitrage-deviation half-lives fell from hours to under a minute and Kyle's λ dropped from 0.53 to 0.01. During October's large-account episode, capital flowed into both sides simultaneously, consistent with heterogeneous-beliefs trading rather than one-sided manipulation. The framework generalizes to other tokenized prediction markets. |
| title | The Anatomy of a Blockchain Prediction Market: Polymarket in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election |
| topic | General Economics Economics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03136 |