Enregistré dans:
| Auteur principal: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2026
|
| Sujets: | |
| Accès en ligne: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.04105 |
| Tags: |
Ajouter un tag
Pas de tags, Soyez le premier à ajouter un tag!
|
| _version_ | 1866908961041547264 |
|---|---|
| author | Seror, Avner |
| author_facet | Seror, Avner |
| contents | We model stochastic choice as environment-dependent switching among a small library of deterministic decision rules. A Random Rule Model generates menu-level choice probabilities via named, interpretable rules weighted by observable menu characteristics. Identification has a two-step structure: within-feature decisive-side variation identifies relative rule weights; cross-feature richness identifies the gate. Applied to binary lottery choices, the estimated weights concentrate on a small subset of rules and shift systematically with complexity and dispersion asymmetry. The model closes nearly all of the prediction gap to a flexible neural-network benchmark, while remaining interpretable, restrictive under permutation diagnostics, and portable to an independent dataset. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_04105 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | A Random Rule Model Seror, Avner General Economics Economics We model stochastic choice as environment-dependent switching among a small library of deterministic decision rules. A Random Rule Model generates menu-level choice probabilities via named, interpretable rules weighted by observable menu characteristics. Identification has a two-step structure: within-feature decisive-side variation identifies relative rule weights; cross-feature richness identifies the gate. Applied to binary lottery choices, the estimated weights concentrate on a small subset of rules and shift systematically with complexity and dispersion asymmetry. The model closes nearly all of the prediction gap to a flexible neural-network benchmark, while remaining interpretable, restrictive under permutation diagnostics, and portable to an independent dataset. |
| title | A Random Rule Model |
| topic | General Economics Economics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.04105 |