Shock Propagation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
Fuente:
arXiv
Salvato in:
| Autori principali: | , |
|---|---|
| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2026
|
| Soggetti: | |
| Accesso online: | |
| Tags: |
Aggiungi Tag
Nessun Tag, puoi essere il primo ad aggiungerne!!
|
| _version_ | 1866908868533026816 |
|---|---|
| author | Mandel, Antoine Veetil, Vipin P. |
| author_facet | Mandel, Antoine Veetil, Vipin P. |
| contents | We study how idiosyncratic firm-level shocks generate aggregate volatility and tail risk when they propagate through a production network under overlapping adjustment: new productivity draws arrive before the economy reaches the static equilibrium associated with earlier draws. Each innovation generates a `productivity wave' that mixes and dissipates over time as it travels through the production network. Macroeconomic fluctuations emerge from the interference between these waves of different vintages. The interference between these waves is governed by the dominant transient eigenvalue of the production network, and therefore so is the macroeconomic fluctuations they generate. In such a dynamic regime, the tail of the degree distribution is a markedly weaker determinant of macro fluctuations than in the fully adjusted static benchmark. And the macroeconomic significance of the degree-heterogeneity of production networks cannot be known without knowing the rate at which the economy converges to equilibrium or equivalently the spectral properties of the production network. More concretely, once we permit the time-averaging of shocks, granular shocks may account for only a small fraction of the empirically observed aggregate volatility. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_05367 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Shock Propagation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations Mandel, Antoine Veetil, Vipin P. Theoretical Economics Social and Information Networks We study how idiosyncratic firm-level shocks generate aggregate volatility and tail risk when they propagate through a production network under overlapping adjustment: new productivity draws arrive before the economy reaches the static equilibrium associated with earlier draws. Each innovation generates a `productivity wave' that mixes and dissipates over time as it travels through the production network. Macroeconomic fluctuations emerge from the interference between these waves of different vintages. The interference between these waves is governed by the dominant transient eigenvalue of the production network, and therefore so is the macroeconomic fluctuations they generate. In such a dynamic regime, the tail of the degree distribution is a markedly weaker determinant of macro fluctuations than in the fully adjusted static benchmark. And the macroeconomic significance of the degree-heterogeneity of production networks cannot be known without knowing the rate at which the economy converges to equilibrium or equivalently the spectral properties of the production network. More concretely, once we permit the time-averaging of shocks, granular shocks may account for only a small fraction of the empirically observed aggregate volatility. |
| title | Shock Propagation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations |
| topic | Theoretical Economics Social and Information Networks |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.05367 |