The Bayesian view of DESI DR2 with unimpeded: Evidence and tension in a combined analysis with CMB and supernovae across cosmological models
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2026
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| author | Ong, Dily Duan Yi Yallup, David Handley, Will |
| author_facet | Ong, Dily Duan Yi Yallup, David Handley, Will |
| contents | We apply the $\texttt{unimpeded}$ framework to perform a fully Bayesian reanalysis of the DESI DR2 data, using nested sampling with $\texttt{PolyChord}$ to compute evidences for $Λ$CDM and seven extensions across combinations of DESI DR1/DR2, Planck CMB, supernovae (Pantheon+, Union3, DES-SN5YR, DES-Dovekie), and DES-Y1 weak lensing. The Bayesian Ockham's razor penalises extended models, yielding weaker or opposite preferences compared to $Δχ^2$-based analyses. For DESI DR2 BAO combined with Planck CMB alone, the DESI collaboration's $3.1σ$ frequentist preference for $w_0w_a$CDM is eliminated entirely: we obtain ${\ln B = -0.57{\scriptstyle\pm0.26}}$, modestly favouring $Λ$CDM. Adding DES-Dovekie, the recalibration of DES-SN5YR, maintains this concordance (${\ln B = -0.30{\scriptstyle\pm0.19}}$). However, when the earlier DES-SN5YR calibration is included instead, the DESI collaboration's $4.2σ$ result survives the Bayesian Ockham penalty as a $3.07{\scriptstyle\pm0.10},σ$ preference (${\ln B = +3.32{\scriptstyle\pm0.27}}$). That this signal persists despite the Ockham penalty makes the role of tension quantification essential: our analysis traced the preference to the earlier DES-SN5YR calibration, which introduced a $2.95{\scriptstyle\pm 0.04},σ$ conflict with DESI DR2 within $Λ$CDM -- a tension that stands out from the grid -- reduced to $1.96{\scriptstyle\pm 0.04},σ$ with the DES-Dovekie recalibration. With DES-Dovekie, the Bayesian evidence for dynamical dark energy vanishes. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_05472 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | The Bayesian view of DESI DR2 with unimpeded: Evidence and tension in a combined analysis with CMB and supernovae across cosmological models Ong, Dily Duan Yi Yallup, David Handley, Will Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics We apply the $\texttt{unimpeded}$ framework to perform a fully Bayesian reanalysis of the DESI DR2 data, using nested sampling with $\texttt{PolyChord}$ to compute evidences for $Λ$CDM and seven extensions across combinations of DESI DR1/DR2, Planck CMB, supernovae (Pantheon+, Union3, DES-SN5YR, DES-Dovekie), and DES-Y1 weak lensing. The Bayesian Ockham's razor penalises extended models, yielding weaker or opposite preferences compared to $Δχ^2$-based analyses. For DESI DR2 BAO combined with Planck CMB alone, the DESI collaboration's $3.1σ$ frequentist preference for $w_0w_a$CDM is eliminated entirely: we obtain ${\ln B = -0.57{\scriptstyle\pm0.26}}$, modestly favouring $Λ$CDM. Adding DES-Dovekie, the recalibration of DES-SN5YR, maintains this concordance (${\ln B = -0.30{\scriptstyle\pm0.19}}$). However, when the earlier DES-SN5YR calibration is included instead, the DESI collaboration's $4.2σ$ result survives the Bayesian Ockham penalty as a $3.07{\scriptstyle\pm0.10},σ$ preference (${\ln B = +3.32{\scriptstyle\pm0.27}}$). That this signal persists despite the Ockham penalty makes the role of tension quantification essential: our analysis traced the preference to the earlier DES-SN5YR calibration, which introduced a $2.95{\scriptstyle\pm 0.04},σ$ conflict with DESI DR2 within $Λ$CDM -- a tension that stands out from the grid -- reduced to $1.96{\scriptstyle\pm 0.04},σ$ with the DES-Dovekie recalibration. With DES-Dovekie, the Bayesian evidence for dynamical dark energy vanishes. |
| title | The Bayesian view of DESI DR2 with unimpeded: Evidence and tension in a combined analysis with CMB and supernovae across cosmological models |
| topic | Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.05472 |