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Auteurs principaux: Wan, Shunzhou, Zhang, Xibei, Xue, Xiao, Coveney, Peter V.
Format: Preprint
Publié: 2026
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Accès en ligne:https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.05532
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author Wan, Shunzhou
Zhang, Xibei
Xue, Xiao
Coveney, Peter V.
author_facet Wan, Shunzhou
Zhang, Xibei
Xue, Xiao
Coveney, Peter V.
contents Despite continuing hype about the role of AI in drug discovery, no "AI-discovered drugs" have so far received regulatory approval. Here we assess one of the latest AI based tools in this domain. The ability to rapidly predict protein-ligand structures and binding affinities is pivotal for accelerating drug discovery. Boltz-2, a recently developed biomolecular foundation model, aims to bridge the gap between AI efficiency and physics-based precision through a joint "co-folding" approach. In this study, we provide an extensive evaluation of Boltz-2 using two large-scale datasets: 16,780 compounds for 3CLPro and 21,702 compounds for TNKS2. We compare Boltz-2 predicted structures with traditional docking and binding affinities with binding free energies derived from the physics-based ESMACS protocol. Structural analysis reveals significant global RMSD variations, indicating that Boltz-2 predicts multiple protein conformations and ligand binding positions rather than a single converged pose. Energetic evaluations exhibit only weak to moderate correlations across the global datasets. Furthermore, a focused analysis of the top 100 compounds yields no significant correlation between the Boltz-2 predictions and the binding free energies from fine-grained ESMACS, alongside observed saturation difference in ligand structures. Our results show that while Boltz-2 offers substantial speed for initial screening, it lacks the energetic resolution required for lead identification. These findings highlight the necessity of employing physics-based methods for the reliability and refinement of AI-derived models.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_05532
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle On the Reliability of AI Methods in Drug Discovery: Evaluation of Boltz-2 for Structure and Binding Affinity Prediction
Wan, Shunzhou
Zhang, Xibei
Xue, Xiao
Coveney, Peter V.
Chemical Physics
Artificial Intelligence
Despite continuing hype about the role of AI in drug discovery, no "AI-discovered drugs" have so far received regulatory approval. Here we assess one of the latest AI based tools in this domain. The ability to rapidly predict protein-ligand structures and binding affinities is pivotal for accelerating drug discovery. Boltz-2, a recently developed biomolecular foundation model, aims to bridge the gap between AI efficiency and physics-based precision through a joint "co-folding" approach. In this study, we provide an extensive evaluation of Boltz-2 using two large-scale datasets: 16,780 compounds for 3CLPro and 21,702 compounds for TNKS2. We compare Boltz-2 predicted structures with traditional docking and binding affinities with binding free energies derived from the physics-based ESMACS protocol. Structural analysis reveals significant global RMSD variations, indicating that Boltz-2 predicts multiple protein conformations and ligand binding positions rather than a single converged pose. Energetic evaluations exhibit only weak to moderate correlations across the global datasets. Furthermore, a focused analysis of the top 100 compounds yields no significant correlation between the Boltz-2 predictions and the binding free energies from fine-grained ESMACS, alongside observed saturation difference in ligand structures. Our results show that while Boltz-2 offers substantial speed for initial screening, it lacks the energetic resolution required for lead identification. These findings highlight the necessity of employing physics-based methods for the reliability and refinement of AI-derived models.
title On the Reliability of AI Methods in Drug Discovery: Evaluation of Boltz-2 for Structure and Binding Affinity Prediction
topic Chemical Physics
Artificial Intelligence
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.05532