Mapping the long-term trajectories of political violence in Africa
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arXiv
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| Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866917318948290560 |
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| author | Radil, Steven M. Dorward, Nick Walther, Olivier Wolf, Levi John |
| author_facet | Radil, Steven M. Dorward, Nick Walther, Olivier Wolf, Levi John |
| contents | Existing models of political violence often emphasize discrete transitions, when conflicts emerge, escalate, or subside, without considering the longer trajectories of violence that accumulate across time and space. This paper introduces a spatially explicit longitudinal sequence analysis to address this gap. Using event-level data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset covering Africa from 1997 to 2024, we classify locations according to the intensity and spatial concentration of violence, tracing how these states evolve into distinct conflict trajectories. Applying optimal matching and clustering techniques, we identify six recurrent patterns ranging from short-lived, localized outbreaks to protracted high-intensity conflicts. We further assess how these trajectories align across neighboring areas, revealing evidence of spatial interdependence, particularly in border regions. By highlighting the temporal rhythms and geographic linkages of political violence, the study advances conflict research beyond isolated transitions and provides a framework for understanding the life cycles of violence. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_06502 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Mapping the long-term trajectories of political violence in Africa Radil, Steven M. Dorward, Nick Walther, Olivier Wolf, Levi John Social and Information Networks Applications Existing models of political violence often emphasize discrete transitions, when conflicts emerge, escalate, or subside, without considering the longer trajectories of violence that accumulate across time and space. This paper introduces a spatially explicit longitudinal sequence analysis to address this gap. Using event-level data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset covering Africa from 1997 to 2024, we classify locations according to the intensity and spatial concentration of violence, tracing how these states evolve into distinct conflict trajectories. Applying optimal matching and clustering techniques, we identify six recurrent patterns ranging from short-lived, localized outbreaks to protracted high-intensity conflicts. We further assess how these trajectories align across neighboring areas, revealing evidence of spatial interdependence, particularly in border regions. By highlighting the temporal rhythms and geographic linkages of political violence, the study advances conflict research beyond isolated transitions and provides a framework for understanding the life cycles of violence. |
| title | Mapping the long-term trajectories of political violence in Africa |
| topic | Social and Information Networks Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.06502 |