Convergences for a Virus-like Evolving Population driven by Mutually-exciting Hawkes Processes

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Roy, Rahul, Selvamuthu, Dharmaraja, Tardelli, Paola
Format: Preprint
Published: 2026
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_version_ 1866908870811582464
author Roy, Rahul
Selvamuthu, Dharmaraja
Tardelli, Paola
author_facet Roy, Rahul
Selvamuthu, Dharmaraja
Tardelli, Paola
contents This paper presents a stochastic model motivated by the study of a virus-like evolving population with different mutation rates. This is a continuous time birth-death model: the birth processes are mutually-exciting Hawkes processes and the death process is also a Hawkes process. This structure for the births and the deaths does not allow, in general, to get the Markov property of the processes involved. But considering the couple given by the Hawkes processes and their intensities we are able to deduce the necessary and sufficient conditions for the Markov property of the couple. This property is the main tool to get the convergence results describing the behaviour of the population, and the existence of a phase transition at a critical fitness level.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_06769
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Convergences for a Virus-like Evolving Population driven by Mutually-exciting Hawkes Processes
Roy, Rahul
Selvamuthu, Dharmaraja
Tardelli, Paola
Probability
60G55, 60J80, 60G52, 60K25, 60K30, 60J76
This paper presents a stochastic model motivated by the study of a virus-like evolving population with different mutation rates. This is a continuous time birth-death model: the birth processes are mutually-exciting Hawkes processes and the death process is also a Hawkes process. This structure for the births and the deaths does not allow, in general, to get the Markov property of the processes involved. But considering the couple given by the Hawkes processes and their intensities we are able to deduce the necessary and sufficient conditions for the Markov property of the couple. This property is the main tool to get the convergence results describing the behaviour of the population, and the existence of a phase transition at a critical fitness level.
title Convergences for a Virus-like Evolving Population driven by Mutually-exciting Hawkes Processes
topic Probability
60G55, 60J80, 60G52, 60K25, 60K30, 60J76
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.06769