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| Autori principali: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2026
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| Soggetti: | |
| Accesso online: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.06909 |
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| _version_ | 1866915842079326208 |
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| author | Sankar, Tharun Dean, Thomas Abbott, Tristan Blickstein, Jill Frías, Alejandra Martín Galyen, Mark Grenham, Rebecca Hodgson, Paul McCloskey, Kevin Pechman, Alan Robarge, Tyler Sanekommu, Dinesh Sarna, Aaron Sonabend-W, Aaron Stettler, Marc Zopp, Raimund Geraedts, Scott |
| author_facet | Sankar, Tharun Dean, Thomas Abbott, Tristan Blickstein, Jill Frías, Alejandra Martín Galyen, Mark Grenham, Rebecca Hodgson, Paul McCloskey, Kevin Pechman, Alan Robarge, Tyler Sanekommu, Dinesh Sarna, Aaron Sonabend-W, Aaron Stettler, Marc Zopp, Raimund Geraedts, Scott |
| contents | Contrails account for a large portion of aviation's contribution to anthropogenic climate change. Navigational contrail avoidance is a promising solution to mitigate the warming caused by contrails. Prior trials testing navigational contrail avoidance have relied on bespoke integrations of contrail forecasts into airline operations. Here, we use a randomized control trial to test the feasibility of dispatcher-led contrail avoidance integrated into standard flight planning operations using a workflow that scales to an airline's entire network. We validated the efficacy of this intervention using satellite imagery and an automated flight-contrail attribution algorithm. Using this system, we observed an 11.6% reduction in contrail formation rate for the 1232 flights marked as eligible for contrail avoidance (intent-to-treat) relative to the flights in the control group (p = 0.011). In the 112 flights that flew contrail avoidance as planned (per-protocol flights), we observed a 62.0% lower contrail formation rate relative to the flights in the control group (p < 0.001). No statistically significant difference in fuel usage was observed between the two groups. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_06909 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Efficacy of Scalable Airline-led Contrail Avoidance Sankar, Tharun Dean, Thomas Abbott, Tristan Blickstein, Jill Frías, Alejandra Martín Galyen, Mark Grenham, Rebecca Hodgson, Paul McCloskey, Kevin Pechman, Alan Robarge, Tyler Sanekommu, Dinesh Sarna, Aaron Sonabend-W, Aaron Stettler, Marc Zopp, Raimund Geraedts, Scott Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Contrails account for a large portion of aviation's contribution to anthropogenic climate change. Navigational contrail avoidance is a promising solution to mitigate the warming caused by contrails. Prior trials testing navigational contrail avoidance have relied on bespoke integrations of contrail forecasts into airline operations. Here, we use a randomized control trial to test the feasibility of dispatcher-led contrail avoidance integrated into standard flight planning operations using a workflow that scales to an airline's entire network. We validated the efficacy of this intervention using satellite imagery and an automated flight-contrail attribution algorithm. Using this system, we observed an 11.6% reduction in contrail formation rate for the 1232 flights marked as eligible for contrail avoidance (intent-to-treat) relative to the flights in the control group (p = 0.011). In the 112 flights that flew contrail avoidance as planned (per-protocol flights), we observed a 62.0% lower contrail formation rate relative to the flights in the control group (p < 0.001). No statistically significant difference in fuel usage was observed between the two groups. |
| title | Efficacy of Scalable Airline-led Contrail Avoidance |
| topic | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.06909 |