Causal Attribution of Coastal Water Clarity Degradation to Nickel Processing Expansion at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, Sulawesi
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arXiv
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| Natura: | Preprint |
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2026
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| author | Herho, Sandy Hardian Susanto Handayani, Alfita Puspa Anwar, Iwan Pramesti Khadami, Faruq Sujatmiko, Karina Aprilia Wibisono, Doandy Yonathan Suwarman, Rusmawan Irawan, Dasapta Erwin |
| author_facet | Herho, Sandy Hardian Susanto Handayani, Alfita Puspa Anwar, Iwan Pramesti Khadami, Faruq Sujatmiko, Karina Aprilia Wibisono, Doandy Yonathan Suwarman, Rusmawan Irawan, Dasapta Erwin |
| contents | Indonesia's nickel ore export ban has driven rapid expansion of smelting and hydrometallurgical processing capacity at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), now the world's largest integrated nickel processing complex, on the coast of Central Sulawesi. Whether this industrialization has degraded the adjacent marine environment remains unquantified. We apply Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) causal inference to a multi-decadal, multi-sensor satellite ocean color record of the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm, $K_d(490)$, to test for a causal link between IMIP expansion and nearshore turbidity change. A consensus structural breakpoint, a significant posterior causal effect estimated against a Banda Sea counterfactual, and a distribution-free placebo rank test collectively establish that coastal water clarity deteriorated after the transition from initial nickel pig iron production to hyper-expansion of high-pressure acid leaching facilities for battery-grade nickel. Satellite-derived land cover analysis independently corroborates this timing, showing substantial built-area growth and concurrent tree cover loss within the IMIP footprint. The resulting euphotic zone shoaling occurs in oligotrophic waters supporting high marine biodiversity, where even moderate optical degradation may impair coral photosynthesis and compress depth-dependent reef habitat. These findings quantify a marine environmental cost absent from Indonesia's mineral downstreaming policy discourse and demonstrate a transferable, satellite-based quasi-experimental framework for causal impact assessment at coastal industrial sites in data-limited tropical settings. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_07331 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Causal Attribution of Coastal Water Clarity Degradation to Nickel Processing Expansion at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, Sulawesi Herho, Sandy Hardian Susanto Handayani, Alfita Puspa Anwar, Iwan Pramesti Khadami, Faruq Sujatmiko, Karina Aprilia Wibisono, Doandy Yonathan Suwarman, Rusmawan Irawan, Dasapta Erwin Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Physics and Society Applications 62P12, 62M10, 86A05, 62F15 Indonesia's nickel ore export ban has driven rapid expansion of smelting and hydrometallurgical processing capacity at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), now the world's largest integrated nickel processing complex, on the coast of Central Sulawesi. Whether this industrialization has degraded the adjacent marine environment remains unquantified. We apply Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) causal inference to a multi-decadal, multi-sensor satellite ocean color record of the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm, $K_d(490)$, to test for a causal link between IMIP expansion and nearshore turbidity change. A consensus structural breakpoint, a significant posterior causal effect estimated against a Banda Sea counterfactual, and a distribution-free placebo rank test collectively establish that coastal water clarity deteriorated after the transition from initial nickel pig iron production to hyper-expansion of high-pressure acid leaching facilities for battery-grade nickel. Satellite-derived land cover analysis independently corroborates this timing, showing substantial built-area growth and concurrent tree cover loss within the IMIP footprint. The resulting euphotic zone shoaling occurs in oligotrophic waters supporting high marine biodiversity, where even moderate optical degradation may impair coral photosynthesis and compress depth-dependent reef habitat. These findings quantify a marine environmental cost absent from Indonesia's mineral downstreaming policy discourse and demonstrate a transferable, satellite-based quasi-experimental framework for causal impact assessment at coastal industrial sites in data-limited tropical settings. |
| title | Causal Attribution of Coastal Water Clarity Degradation to Nickel Processing Expansion at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, Sulawesi |
| topic | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Physics and Society Applications 62P12, 62M10, 86A05, 62F15 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.07331 |