An operator-level ARCH Model
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866914404123017216 |
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| author | Aue, Alexander Kühnert, Sebastian Rice, Gregory VanderDoes, Jeremy |
| author_facet | Aue, Alexander Kühnert, Sebastian Rice, Gregory VanderDoes, Jeremy |
| contents | AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models are standard for modeling time series exhibiting volatility, with a rich literature in univariate and multivariate settings. In recent years, these models have been extended to function spaces. However, functional ARCH and generalized ARCH (GARCH) processes established in the literature have thus far been restricted to model ``pointwise'' variances. In this paper, we propose a new ARCH framework for data residing in general separable Hilbert spaces that accounts for the full evolution of the conditional covariance operator. We define a general operator-level ARCH model. For a simplified Constant Conditional Correlation version of the model, we establish conditions under which such models admit strictly and weakly stationary solutions, finite moments, and weak serial dependence. Additionally, we derive consistent Yule--Walker-type estimators of the infinite-dimensional model parameters. The practical relevance of the model is illustrated through simulations and a data application to high-frequency cumulative intraday returns. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_10272 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | An operator-level ARCH Model Aue, Alexander Kühnert, Sebastian Rice, Gregory VanderDoes, Jeremy Methodology Econometrics Statistics Theory Statistical Finance 60G10, 62F12, 62R10 AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models are standard for modeling time series exhibiting volatility, with a rich literature in univariate and multivariate settings. In recent years, these models have been extended to function spaces. However, functional ARCH and generalized ARCH (GARCH) processes established in the literature have thus far been restricted to model ``pointwise'' variances. In this paper, we propose a new ARCH framework for data residing in general separable Hilbert spaces that accounts for the full evolution of the conditional covariance operator. We define a general operator-level ARCH model. For a simplified Constant Conditional Correlation version of the model, we establish conditions under which such models admit strictly and weakly stationary solutions, finite moments, and weak serial dependence. Additionally, we derive consistent Yule--Walker-type estimators of the infinite-dimensional model parameters. The practical relevance of the model is illustrated through simulations and a data application to high-frequency cumulative intraday returns. |
| title | An operator-level ARCH Model |
| topic | Methodology Econometrics Statistics Theory Statistical Finance 60G10, 62F12, 62R10 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.10272 |