Ranking Reasoning LLMs under Test-Time Scaling
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866915994718437376 |
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| author | Hariri, Mohsen Hinczewski, Michael Ma, Jing Chaudhary, Vipin |
| author_facet | Hariri, Mohsen Hinczewski, Michael Ma, Jing Chaudhary, Vipin |
| contents | Test-time scaling evaluates reasoning LLMs by sampling multiple outputs per prompt, but ranking models in this regime remains underexplored. We formalize dense benchmark ranking under test-time scaling and introduce Scorio, a library that implements statistical ranking methods such as paired-comparison models, item response theory (IRT) models, voting rules, and graph- and spectral-based methods. Across $20$ reasoning models on four Olympiad-style math benchmarks (AIME'24, AIME'25, HMMT'25, and BrUMO'25; up to $N=80$ trials), most full-trial rankings agree closely with the Bayesian gold standard $\mathrm{Bayes}_{\mathcal{U}}@80$ (mean Kendall's $τ_b = 0.93$--$0.95$), and $19$--$34$ methods recover exactly the same ordering. In the single-trial regime, the best methods reach $τ_b \approx 0.86$. Using greedy decoding as an empirical prior ($\mathrm{Bayes}_{\mathbf{R}_0}@N$) reduces variance at $N=1$ by $16$--$52\%$, but can bias rankings when greedy and stochastic sampling disagree. These results identify reliable ranking methods for both high- and low-budget test-time scaling. We release Scorio as an open-source library at https://github.com/mohsenhariri/scorio. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_10960 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Ranking Reasoning LLMs under Test-Time Scaling Hariri, Mohsen Hinczewski, Michael Ma, Jing Chaudhary, Vipin Machine Learning Statistics Theory Test-time scaling evaluates reasoning LLMs by sampling multiple outputs per prompt, but ranking models in this regime remains underexplored. We formalize dense benchmark ranking under test-time scaling and introduce Scorio, a library that implements statistical ranking methods such as paired-comparison models, item response theory (IRT) models, voting rules, and graph- and spectral-based methods. Across $20$ reasoning models on four Olympiad-style math benchmarks (AIME'24, AIME'25, HMMT'25, and BrUMO'25; up to $N=80$ trials), most full-trial rankings agree closely with the Bayesian gold standard $\mathrm{Bayes}_{\mathcal{U}}@80$ (mean Kendall's $τ_b = 0.93$--$0.95$), and $19$--$34$ methods recover exactly the same ordering. In the single-trial regime, the best methods reach $τ_b \approx 0.86$. Using greedy decoding as an empirical prior ($\mathrm{Bayes}_{\mathbf{R}_0}@N$) reduces variance at $N=1$ by $16$--$52\%$, but can bias rankings when greedy and stochastic sampling disagree. These results identify reliable ranking methods for both high- and low-budget test-time scaling. We release Scorio as an open-source library at https://github.com/mohsenhariri/scorio. |
| title | Ranking Reasoning LLMs under Test-Time Scaling |
| topic | Machine Learning Statistics Theory |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.10960 |