Macroeconomic Forecasting from Input-Output Tables Alone: A Darwinian Agent-Based Approach with FIGARO Data
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arXiv
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866917361411424256 |
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| author | Jaraiz, Martin |
| author_facet | Jaraiz, Martin |
| contents | How much macroeconomic information is contained in a single input-output table? We feed FIGARO 64-sector symmetric tables into DEPLOYERS, a Darwinian agent-based simulator, producing genuine out-of-sample GDP forecasts. For each year, the model reads one FIGARO table for year N, self-organizes an artificial economy through evolutionary natural selection, then runs 12 months of autonomous free-market dynamics whose emergent growth rate predicts year N+1. The I-O table is the only input: no time series, no estimated parameters, no expectations formation, no external forecasts.
We present five results. First, a 9-year Austrian panel (2010-2018) using 12-seed ensembles produces MAE of 1.22 pp overall; for five non-crisis years, MAE falls to 0.42 pp -- comparable to the best professional forecaster (WIFO: 0.48 pp). A Swedish 9-year panel independently confirms this accuracy (normal-years MAE 0.80 pp). Second, cross-country portability is demonstrated across 33 of 37 tested FIGARO countries with zero parameter changes. Third, a German 9-year panel reveals systematic +3.7 pp positive bias from export dependency -- an informative negative result pointing to multi-country network simulation as the natural extension. Fourth, a COVID-19 simulation demonstrates the I-O structure as a shock propagation mechanism: a 19-month timeline produces Year 1 GDP -4.62% vs empirical -6.6%. Fifth, emergent firm size distributions match European Commission data without micro-target calibration.
These results establish the I-O table as serving a dual purpose: structural baseline engine and dynamic shock propagation mechanism. Since FIGARO covers 46 countries, the approach is immediately portable without retuning parameters. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_12412 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Macroeconomic Forecasting from Input-Output Tables Alone: A Darwinian Agent-Based Approach with FIGARO Data Jaraiz, Martin General Economics Economics How much macroeconomic information is contained in a single input-output table? We feed FIGARO 64-sector symmetric tables into DEPLOYERS, a Darwinian agent-based simulator, producing genuine out-of-sample GDP forecasts. For each year, the model reads one FIGARO table for year N, self-organizes an artificial economy through evolutionary natural selection, then runs 12 months of autonomous free-market dynamics whose emergent growth rate predicts year N+1. The I-O table is the only input: no time series, no estimated parameters, no expectations formation, no external forecasts. We present five results. First, a 9-year Austrian panel (2010-2018) using 12-seed ensembles produces MAE of 1.22 pp overall; for five non-crisis years, MAE falls to 0.42 pp -- comparable to the best professional forecaster (WIFO: 0.48 pp). A Swedish 9-year panel independently confirms this accuracy (normal-years MAE 0.80 pp). Second, cross-country portability is demonstrated across 33 of 37 tested FIGARO countries with zero parameter changes. Third, a German 9-year panel reveals systematic +3.7 pp positive bias from export dependency -- an informative negative result pointing to multi-country network simulation as the natural extension. Fourth, a COVID-19 simulation demonstrates the I-O structure as a shock propagation mechanism: a 19-month timeline produces Year 1 GDP -4.62% vs empirical -6.6%. Fifth, emergent firm size distributions match European Commission data without micro-target calibration. These results establish the I-O table as serving a dual purpose: structural baseline engine and dynamic shock propagation mechanism. Since FIGARO covers 46 countries, the approach is immediately portable without retuning parameters. |
| title | Macroeconomic Forecasting from Input-Output Tables Alone: A Darwinian Agent-Based Approach with FIGARO Data |
| topic | General Economics Economics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.12412 |