Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.13762 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866908885987622912 |
|---|---|
| author | He, Zihuai |
| author_facet | He, Zihuai |
| contents | Understanding how an exposure transmits its effect through high-dimensional intermediaries is a central problem in observational research. We study the problem of finding a composite mediator that maximises the indirect effect of an exposure on an outcome in a linear structural equation model. Although the objective is non-convex in the weight vector, a geometric argument yields a closed-form global solution: the optimal weight bisects the angle between two computable path vectors in a weighted inner product space, recovered via two linear solves. The resulting algorithm, MaxIE, runs at the same cost as ordinary least squares -- orders of magnitude lower than numerical optimisation -- with a dual formulation for settings where mediators outnumber observations. The same path vectors yield a test for the global null that no composite mediator exists, with t(p-1) in the classical and t(n-2) in the dual regime. Power is characterised analytically as a function of the population path angle; simulations confirm size control and the power characterisation. Applied to a UK Biobank proteomics dataset (n=38,383, p=2,916), the method rejects the global null (p-value = 6.4e-9) and identifies the optimal proteomic composite mediating age's effect on dementia. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_13762 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Learning the Optimal Composite Mediator: Closed-Form Solution and Inference He, Zihuai Methodology Understanding how an exposure transmits its effect through high-dimensional intermediaries is a central problem in observational research. We study the problem of finding a composite mediator that maximises the indirect effect of an exposure on an outcome in a linear structural equation model. Although the objective is non-convex in the weight vector, a geometric argument yields a closed-form global solution: the optimal weight bisects the angle between two computable path vectors in a weighted inner product space, recovered via two linear solves. The resulting algorithm, MaxIE, runs at the same cost as ordinary least squares -- orders of magnitude lower than numerical optimisation -- with a dual formulation for settings where mediators outnumber observations. The same path vectors yield a test for the global null that no composite mediator exists, with t(p-1) in the classical and t(n-2) in the dual regime. Power is characterised analytically as a function of the population path angle; simulations confirm size control and the power characterisation. Applied to a UK Biobank proteomics dataset (n=38,383, p=2,916), the method rejects the global null (p-value = 6.4e-9) and identifies the optimal proteomic composite mediating age's effect on dementia. |
| title | Learning the Optimal Composite Mediator: Closed-Form Solution and Inference |
| topic | Methodology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.13762 |