A Quantitative Model of Non-Marriage and Fertility: Bargaining over Leisure
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866915865260195840 |
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| author | Yanagimoto, Kazuharu |
| author_facet | Yanagimoto, Kazuharu |
| contents | This paper introduces a new factor contributing to the decline in marriage and fertility: the growth of leisure technology. Over recent decades, high-income countries have experienced two notable shifts in household and family dynamics. First, there has been a significant decline in marriage rates and fertility. Second, time has increasingly been allocated to leisure activities. This paper presents a unified model of marriage and fertility, incorporating intra-household bargaining dynamics. The model, calibrated using data from Japan between 2019 and 2023, is employed to assess the impact of leisure technology growth on marriage and fertility during 2005-2009. The findings highlight that leisure technology growth makes single life relatively more appealing compared to marriage and parenthood. The model explains 21.1% of the decline in marriage and 73.1% of the decrease in fertility. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_14758 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | A Quantitative Model of Non-Marriage and Fertility: Bargaining over Leisure Yanagimoto, Kazuharu General Economics Economics This paper introduces a new factor contributing to the decline in marriage and fertility: the growth of leisure technology. Over recent decades, high-income countries have experienced two notable shifts in household and family dynamics. First, there has been a significant decline in marriage rates and fertility. Second, time has increasingly been allocated to leisure activities. This paper presents a unified model of marriage and fertility, incorporating intra-household bargaining dynamics. The model, calibrated using data from Japan between 2019 and 2023, is employed to assess the impact of leisure technology growth on marriage and fertility during 2005-2009. The findings highlight that leisure technology growth makes single life relatively more appealing compared to marriage and parenthood. The model explains 21.1% of the decline in marriage and 73.1% of the decrease in fertility. |
| title | A Quantitative Model of Non-Marriage and Fertility: Bargaining over Leisure |
| topic | General Economics Economics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.14758 |