Resolving the Paradox of Changing ENSO-Monsoon Relation through Global-ENSO
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| author | Sharma, Devabrat Tandon, Shruti Chopra, Gaurav Sujith, R. I. Goswami, B. N. |
| author_facet | Sharma, Devabrat Tandon, Shruti Chopra, Gaurav Sujith, R. I. Goswami, B. N. |
| contents | Recent debates over the changing correlation between Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have raised inconclusive claims about the stability of the ENSO-Monsoon relationship (EMR) and ISMR predictability. Here we show that this apparent instability arises because traditional Pacific-based ENSO indices incompletely represent ENSO's global influence and are affected by climate noise, making their correlation with ISMR unreliable. We introduce a Global-ENSO framework using the depth of the 20-degree Celsius isotherm (Dp), a subsurface predictor integrating contributions from all three tropical ocean basins and maximizing ISMR teleconnections. Contrary to previous findings, ISMR shows a strong and stable correlation (0.8) with Dp at 18-month lead during the historical period. This predictability emerges from lagged synchronization between ISMR and Dp, where ISMR evolves as a delayed realization of the Dp dynamics. Our findings suggest that true EMR is stable and ISMR robustly predictable, providing clarity amid ongoing controversies. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_16346 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Resolving the Paradox of Changing ENSO-Monsoon Relation through Global-ENSO Sharma, Devabrat Tandon, Shruti Chopra, Gaurav Sujith, R. I. Goswami, B. N. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Recent debates over the changing correlation between Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have raised inconclusive claims about the stability of the ENSO-Monsoon relationship (EMR) and ISMR predictability. Here we show that this apparent instability arises because traditional Pacific-based ENSO indices incompletely represent ENSO's global influence and are affected by climate noise, making their correlation with ISMR unreliable. We introduce a Global-ENSO framework using the depth of the 20-degree Celsius isotherm (Dp), a subsurface predictor integrating contributions from all three tropical ocean basins and maximizing ISMR teleconnections. Contrary to previous findings, ISMR shows a strong and stable correlation (0.8) with Dp at 18-month lead during the historical period. This predictability emerges from lagged synchronization between ISMR and Dp, where ISMR evolves as a delayed realization of the Dp dynamics. Our findings suggest that true EMR is stable and ISMR robustly predictable, providing clarity amid ongoing controversies. |
| title | Resolving the Paradox of Changing ENSO-Monsoon Relation through Global-ENSO |
| topic | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.16346 |