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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.16813 |
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| _version_ | 1866911542590570496 |
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| author | Liu, Shuo Mott, John |
| author_facet | Liu, Shuo Mott, John |
| contents | This paper investigates the evolving causal mechanisms of flight delays in the U.S. domestic aviation network from 2010-2024. Utilizing a three-level hierarchical Bayesian model on Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) on-time performance data, we decouple the marginal contribution factors of weather, national aviation system (NAS), security delays, and late-arriving aircraft, using carrier delays as the baseline reference. Our findings suggest a structural shift: during the pre-pandemic decade (2010-2019), security delays functioned as an operational stabilizer with negative causal leverage (beta approx -1.307). However, in the post-pandemic period, they shift to a statistically marginal effect (beta approx -0.130). While the total volume of security delays remains a marginal fraction of the overall system latency, this structural shift points toward a potential change in the operational sensitivity of the system to security-related frictions. We show that while causal neutralization is characteristic of high-volume hubs (n >= 100), a discernible directional shift into a positive delay driver (beta approx 0.118) is observed as the analysis scales down to include the broader network (n >= 30). Our model identifies a significant change in how security delays propagate through high-volume nodes, evolving from an internalized operational buffer into a statistically discernible contributor to delay probability in the post-pandemic era. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_16813 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Evolutionary Structural Shift in Security Screening Sensitivity within the U.S. Aviation Network: A 15-Year Longitudinal Bayesian Assessment (2010-2024) Liu, Shuo Mott, John Applications This paper investigates the evolving causal mechanisms of flight delays in the U.S. domestic aviation network from 2010-2024. Utilizing a three-level hierarchical Bayesian model on Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) on-time performance data, we decouple the marginal contribution factors of weather, national aviation system (NAS), security delays, and late-arriving aircraft, using carrier delays as the baseline reference. Our findings suggest a structural shift: during the pre-pandemic decade (2010-2019), security delays functioned as an operational stabilizer with negative causal leverage (beta approx -1.307). However, in the post-pandemic period, they shift to a statistically marginal effect (beta approx -0.130). While the total volume of security delays remains a marginal fraction of the overall system latency, this structural shift points toward a potential change in the operational sensitivity of the system to security-related frictions. We show that while causal neutralization is characteristic of high-volume hubs (n >= 100), a discernible directional shift into a positive delay driver (beta approx 0.118) is observed as the analysis scales down to include the broader network (n >= 30). Our model identifies a significant change in how security delays propagate through high-volume nodes, evolving from an internalized operational buffer into a statistically discernible contributor to delay probability in the post-pandemic era. |
| title | Evolutionary Structural Shift in Security Screening Sensitivity within the U.S. Aviation Network: A 15-Year Longitudinal Bayesian Assessment (2010-2024) |
| topic | Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.16813 |