Evaluating Counterfactual Strategic Reasoning in Large Language Models

Fuente: arXiv
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Auteurs principaux: Georgousis, Dimitrios, Lymperaiou, Maria, Dimitriou, Angeliki, Filandrianos, Giorgos, Stamou, Giorgos
Format: Preprint
Publié: 2026
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author Georgousis, Dimitrios
Lymperaiou, Maria
Dimitriou, Angeliki
Filandrianos, Giorgos
Stamou, Giorgos
author_facet Georgousis, Dimitrios
Lymperaiou, Maria
Dimitriou, Angeliki
Filandrianos, Giorgos
Stamou, Giorgos
contents We evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) in repeated game-theoretic settings to assess whether strategic performance reflects genuine reasoning or reliance on memorized patterns. We consider two canonical games, Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) and Rock-Paper-Scissors (RPS), upon which we introduce counterfactual variants that alter payoff structures and action labels, breaking familiar symmetries and dominance relations. Our multi-metric evaluation framework compares default and counterfactual instantiations, showcasing LLM limitations in incentive sensitivity, structural generalization and strategic reasoning within counterfactual environments.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_19167
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Evaluating Counterfactual Strategic Reasoning in Large Language Models
Georgousis, Dimitrios
Lymperaiou, Maria
Dimitriou, Angeliki
Filandrianos, Giorgos
Stamou, Giorgos
Computation and Language
We evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) in repeated game-theoretic settings to assess whether strategic performance reflects genuine reasoning or reliance on memorized patterns. We consider two canonical games, Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) and Rock-Paper-Scissors (RPS), upon which we introduce counterfactual variants that alter payoff structures and action labels, breaking familiar symmetries and dominance relations. Our multi-metric evaluation framework compares default and counterfactual instantiations, showcasing LLM limitations in incentive sensitivity, structural generalization and strategic reasoning within counterfactual environments.
title Evaluating Counterfactual Strategic Reasoning in Large Language Models
topic Computation and Language
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.19167