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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.20809 |
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| _version_ | 1866908905343287296 |
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| author | Lacasa-Cazcarra, Marcos |
| author_facet | Lacasa-Cazcarra, Marcos |
| contents | We study the employment effects of the 22% increase in the Spanish minimum wage in 2019, focusing on young workers. Using census-grade administrative tax data covering the universe of formal wage bills and employment (Models 190/390 linked to personal income tax records), we construct several measures of treatment intensity, including two structurally grounded bite indicators based on the incidence of young minimum-wage workers and the implied increase in the wage bill obtained via Exponential Tilting. Difference-in-differences estimates with two-way fixed effects, dynamic event-study specifications, and robust confidence intervals from the HonestDiD framework all point to the same conclusion: the reform did not generate net disemployment effects for young workers. Point estimates of the elasticity are small and often positive, and confidence internals comfortably include zero even with sizable deviations from parallel trends. A triple-difference design exploiting pre-existing tourism dependence further shows that the sharp employment collapse of 2020 is primarily explained by the COVID-19 shock operating through tourism-intensive sectors, rather than by the minimum-wage hike itself. Our results suggest that, in the macroeconomic and institutional environment prevailing in Spain in 2019, with the minimum wage rising to around 60% of the average wage in a recovering economy, the labour market absorbed a large discrete increase in the wage floor without destroying aggregate youth employment. More broadly, the paper highlights how the choice of treatment definition, the use of census-grade data, robust DiD inference, and explicit modelling of concurrent shocks can shape conclusions about the effects of minimum-wage policies. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_20809 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | The Structural Bite: A Methodological Framework for Minimum Wage Studies using Spanish Administrative Data Lacasa-Cazcarra, Marcos Econometrics 91B40 G.3; J.4 We study the employment effects of the 22% increase in the Spanish minimum wage in 2019, focusing on young workers. Using census-grade administrative tax data covering the universe of formal wage bills and employment (Models 190/390 linked to personal income tax records), we construct several measures of treatment intensity, including two structurally grounded bite indicators based on the incidence of young minimum-wage workers and the implied increase in the wage bill obtained via Exponential Tilting. Difference-in-differences estimates with two-way fixed effects, dynamic event-study specifications, and robust confidence intervals from the HonestDiD framework all point to the same conclusion: the reform did not generate net disemployment effects for young workers. Point estimates of the elasticity are small and often positive, and confidence internals comfortably include zero even with sizable deviations from parallel trends. A triple-difference design exploiting pre-existing tourism dependence further shows that the sharp employment collapse of 2020 is primarily explained by the COVID-19 shock operating through tourism-intensive sectors, rather than by the minimum-wage hike itself. Our results suggest that, in the macroeconomic and institutional environment prevailing in Spain in 2019, with the minimum wage rising to around 60% of the average wage in a recovering economy, the labour market absorbed a large discrete increase in the wage floor without destroying aggregate youth employment. More broadly, the paper highlights how the choice of treatment definition, the use of census-grade data, robust DiD inference, and explicit modelling of concurrent shocks can shape conclusions about the effects of minimum-wage policies. |
| title | The Structural Bite: A Methodological Framework for Minimum Wage Studies using Spanish Administrative Data |
| topic | Econometrics 91B40 G.3; J.4 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.20809 |