The Fate of the Milky Way--Andromeda System: To Merge or Not?
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866908909260767232 |
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| author | Wu, Hao Huang, Yang Zhang, Huawei Sun, Guangze Shao, Shi |
| author_facet | Wu, Hao Huang, Yang Zhang, Huawei Sun, Guangze Shao, Shi |
| contents | It has long been predicted that the Milky Way (MW) will eventually merge with Andromeda (M31), a view reinforced by \textit{HST} measurements indicating a small M31 transverse velocity. However, using updated \textit{Gaia}-based proper motions (PMs) and including the dynamical influence of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and M33, Sawala et al. reported an MW--M31 merger probability of $\sim$50\% within 10 Gyr, leaving the fate of the Local Group (LG) uncertain. Adopting their semi-analytic framework, we revisit this problem with the latest and most precise \textit{Gaia}-based PMs for M31 and M33, corrected for systematic offsets in \textit{Gaia} astrometry. In our fiducial model, the MW--M31 merger probability rises to 90\%, with a median merger time of $6.5_{-1.5}^{+1.3}$ Gyr, broadly restoring the classical picture. A sensitivity analysis shows that the merger probability depends strongly on the adopted M31 PM through two channels: a direct effect via the radial-tangential balance of the MW-M31 orbit, and a satellite-mediated effect, where the M31 PM fixes the orbital plane and determines how satellite-induced barycentric reflex motions project onto it, either promoting or suppressing a merger. Given this sensitivity, current measurements, while favoring a high merger probability, remain inconclusive, spanning from 64.7\% to 100\% across the 2$σ$ PM region. Future PM measurements with uncertainty of $\lesssim2\,\upmu\mathrm{as\,yr^{-1}}$ will be required to reach a firm conclusion, i.e., to constrain the probability range within 10\% at the 2$σ$ level. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_22863 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | The Fate of the Milky Way--Andromeda System: To Merge or Not? Wu, Hao Huang, Yang Zhang, Huawei Sun, Guangze Shao, Shi Astrophysics of Galaxies It has long been predicted that the Milky Way (MW) will eventually merge with Andromeda (M31), a view reinforced by \textit{HST} measurements indicating a small M31 transverse velocity. However, using updated \textit{Gaia}-based proper motions (PMs) and including the dynamical influence of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and M33, Sawala et al. reported an MW--M31 merger probability of $\sim$50\% within 10 Gyr, leaving the fate of the Local Group (LG) uncertain. Adopting their semi-analytic framework, we revisit this problem with the latest and most precise \textit{Gaia}-based PMs for M31 and M33, corrected for systematic offsets in \textit{Gaia} astrometry. In our fiducial model, the MW--M31 merger probability rises to 90\%, with a median merger time of $6.5_{-1.5}^{+1.3}$ Gyr, broadly restoring the classical picture. A sensitivity analysis shows that the merger probability depends strongly on the adopted M31 PM through two channels: a direct effect via the radial-tangential balance of the MW-M31 orbit, and a satellite-mediated effect, where the M31 PM fixes the orbital plane and determines how satellite-induced barycentric reflex motions project onto it, either promoting or suppressing a merger. Given this sensitivity, current measurements, while favoring a high merger probability, remain inconclusive, spanning from 64.7\% to 100\% across the 2$σ$ PM region. Future PM measurements with uncertainty of $\lesssim2\,\upmu\mathrm{as\,yr^{-1}}$ will be required to reach a firm conclusion, i.e., to constrain the probability range within 10\% at the 2$σ$ level. |
| title | The Fate of the Milky Way--Andromeda System: To Merge or Not? |
| topic | Astrophysics of Galaxies |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.22863 |