Cover Image

Beyond Static Uncertainty: Modeling Temporal Uncertainty Dynamics for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Fuente: arXiv

Saved in:

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Wang, Yijun, Zhuang, Qiyuan, Marchanka, Larysa, Wei, Xiu-Shen
Format:	Preprint
Published:	2026
Subjects:	Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence
Online Access:	Acceder al recurso
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!

Similar Items

Probabilistic Learning of Multivariate Time Series with Temporal Irregularity
by: Li, Yijun, et al.
Published: (2023)

Let Experts Feel Uncertainty: A Multi-Expert Label Distribution Approach to Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
by: Zhou, Zhen, et al.
Published: (2026)

EnergyPatchTST: Multi-scale Time Series Transformers with Uncertainty Estimation for Energy Forecasting
by: Li, Wei, et al.
Published: (2025)

SDGF: Fusing Static and Multi-Scale Dynamic Correlations for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
by: Wang, Shaoxun, et al.
Published: (2025)

TimeEmb: A Lightweight Static-Dynamic Disentanglement Framework for Time Series Forecasting
by: Xia, Mingyuan, et al.
Published: (2025)

Nested Spatio-Temporal Time Series Forecasting
by: Ai, Yinghao, et al.
Published: (2026)

MoGU: Mixture-of-Gaussians with Uncertainty-based Gating for Time Series Forecasting
by: Aviv, Gilad, et al.
Published: (2025)

T-LLM: Teaching Large Language Models to Forecast Time Series via Temporal Distillation
by: Guo, Suhan, et al.
Published: (2026)

Context-Aware Probabilistic Modeling with LLM for Multimodal Time Series Forecasting
by: Yao, Yueyang, et al.
Published: (2025)

Towards Reliable Time Series Forecasting under Future Uncertainty: Ambiguity and Novelty Rejection Mechanisms
by: Feng, Ninghui, et al.
Published: (2025)

ProbFM: Probabilistic Time Series Foundation Model with Uncertainty Decomposition
by: Chinta, Arundeep, et al.
Published: (2026)

Lag-Llama: Towards Foundation Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
by: Rasul, Kashif, et al.
Published: (2023)

Non-stationary Diffusion For Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
by: Ye, Weiwei, et al.
Published: (2025)

Online Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting via Uncertainty-Driven Dual-Expert Calibration
by: Wen, Haonan, et al.
Published: (2026)

Stochastic Diffusion: A Diffusion Probabilistic Model for Stochastic Time Series Forecasting
by: Liu, Yuansan, et al.
Published: (2024)

RDIT: Residual-based Diffusion Implicit Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
by: Lai, Chih-Yu, et al.
Published: (2025)

RPMixer: Shaking Up Time Series Forecasting with Random Projections for Large Spatial-Temporal Data
by: Yeh, Chin-Chia Michael, et al.
Published: (2024)

Winner-takes-all for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
by: Cortés, Adrien, et al.
Published: (2025)

QKCV Attention: Enhancing Time Series Forecasting with Static Categorical Embeddings for Both Lightweight and Pre-trained Foundation Models
by: Wang, Hao, et al.
Published: (2025)

Beyond Model Ranking: Predictability-Aligned Evaluation for Time Series Forecasting
by: Feng, Wanjin, et al.
Published: (2025)

Flow Matching with Gaussian Process Priors for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
by: Kollovieh, Marcel, et al.
Published: (2024)

TS-LIF: A Temporal Segment Spiking Neuron Network for Time Series Forecasting
by: Feng, Shibo, et al.
Published: (2025)

FEATHer: Fourier-Efficient Adaptive Temporal Hierarchy Forecaster for Time-Series Forecasting
by: Lee, Jaehoon, et al.
Published: (2026)

DiffLoad: Uncertainty Quantification in Electrical Load Forecasting with the Diffusion Model
by: Wang, Zhixian, et al.
Published: (2023)

Learning Graph Structures and Uncertainty for Accurate and Calibrated Time-series Forecasting
by: Kamarthi, Harshavardhan, et al.
Published: (2024)

HTMformer: Hybrid Time and Multivariate Transformer for Time Series Forecasting
by: Wang, Tan, et al.
Published: (2025)

Parametric Prior Mapping Framework for Non-stationary Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
by: Li, Jinglin, et al.
Published: (2026)

Apollo-Forecast: Overcoming Aliasing and Inference Speed Challenges in Language Models for Time Series Forecasting
by: Yin, Tianyi, et al.
Published: (2024)

Enhancing Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Global Temporal Retrieval
by: Cao, Fanpu, et al.
Published: (2026)

Hierarchical Information-Guided Spatio-Temporal Mamba for Stock Time Series Forecasting
by: Yan, Wenbo, et al.
Published: (2025)

Uncertainty Quantification in Probabilistic Machine Learning Models: Theory, Methods, and Insights
by: Ajirak, Marzieh, et al.
Published: (2025)

Factorize to Generalize: Retrieval-Guided Invariant-Dynamic Decomposition for Time Series Forecasting
by: Chi, Jinjin, et al.
Published: (2026)

Time Series Forecasting Through the Lens of Dynamics
by: Brachet, Alexis-Raja, et al.
Published: (2025)

Ellipsoidal Time Series Forecasting
by: Wang, Qilin
Published: (2025)

An Uncertainty-Aware ED-LSTM for Probabilistic Suffix Prediction
by: Mustroph, Henryk, et al.
Published: (2025)

Augmented Contrastive Clustering with Uncertainty-Aware Prototyping for Time Series Test Time Adaptation
by: Gong, Peiliang, et al.
Published: (2025)

SVTime: Small Time Series Forecasting Models Informed by "Physics" of Large Vision Model Forecasters
by: Shen, ChengAo, et al.
Published: (2025)

Enhancing Time Series Forecasting via Logic-Inspired Regularization
by: Zhang, Jianqi, et al.
Published: (2025)

Beyond Similarity: Temporal Operator Attention for Time Series Analysis
by: Twitty, Jevon, et al.
Published: (2026)

Uncertainty-Aware Probabilistic Graph Neural Networks for Road-Level Traffic Accident Prediction
by: Gao, Xiaowei, et al.
Published: (2023)