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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.25217 |
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| _version_ | 1866914424468537344 |
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| author | Lacava, Demetrio |
| author_facet | Lacava, Demetrio |
| contents | This paper introduces a new extension of the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) model aimed at improving tail risk forecasting across assets. The proposed component-based model, CAViaR with Spillover Effects (CAViaR-SE), decomposes the conditional Value at Risk into a proper-risk component and a spillover component driven by a linear combination of tail risks from influential assets. These assets are selected via a recursive partial correlation algorithm, allowing multiple spillover sources with minimal parameterization. The spillover component acts as a predictable quantile shifter, directly affecting the conditional quantile dynamics rather than the volatility scale. Empirical results on Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks show that spillover effects account for a substantial share of total tail risk and significantly improve out-of-sample tail risk forecasts. Backtesting procedures, together with Model Confidence Set (MCS) analysis, confirm that CAViaR-SE provides well-calibrated risk measures and statistically superior forecasts compared to standard and augmented CAViaR models. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_25217 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Modeling and Forecasting Tail Risk Spillovers: A Component-Based CAViaR Approach Lacava, Demetrio Risk Management This paper introduces a new extension of the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) model aimed at improving tail risk forecasting across assets. The proposed component-based model, CAViaR with Spillover Effects (CAViaR-SE), decomposes the conditional Value at Risk into a proper-risk component and a spillover component driven by a linear combination of tail risks from influential assets. These assets are selected via a recursive partial correlation algorithm, allowing multiple spillover sources with minimal parameterization. The spillover component acts as a predictable quantile shifter, directly affecting the conditional quantile dynamics rather than the volatility scale. Empirical results on Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks show that spillover effects account for a substantial share of total tail risk and significantly improve out-of-sample tail risk forecasts. Backtesting procedures, together with Model Confidence Set (MCS) analysis, confirm that CAViaR-SE provides well-calibrated risk measures and statistically superior forecasts compared to standard and augmented CAViaR models. |
| title | Modeling and Forecasting Tail Risk Spillovers: A Component-Based CAViaR Approach |
| topic | Risk Management |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.25217 |